The Pistons Need More From Cade Cunningham

The Pistons aren’t down 3-1 to the Magic because of Cade Cunningham, but they kinda are

The Detroit Pistons’ backs are up against the wall, and there are absolutely no excuses. The Orlando Magic, after limping their way into the playoffs, have taken a commanding 3-1 series lead on the strength of 31.3% 3-point shooting and an offensive rating of 102. Simply put, the Pistons would have this series nearly done and dusted if their offense had managed to drag itself out of 2004 and into 2005, but it’s near-impossible to overcome 27.5% 3-point shooting and an offensive rating of 99.5.

It doesn’t take any insight to lay the blame for the Pistons’ calamitous postseason performance at the feet of their offense, but teams are made up of individuals, and figuring out which one to blame is America’s true favorite blood sport. Through four games, the most readily scapegoated Piston has been Jalen Duren.

Duren broke out in a big way this season. He averaged 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game on a league-leading True Shooting Percentage (TS%) of 68.8%, and he is very likely to make an All-NBA team, a distinction he deserves. It was an awesome season, but he has shriveled up into an unplayable mess against the Magic. In 30.4 minutes a game, Duren is averaging 9.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game on a TS% of 51.7%. It’s not just that the Magic’s Wendell Carter Jr is outplaying him; Goga Bitadze, who is shooting 33.3% from the field, is outplaying him.

Duren’s utter collapse is an easy and deserved target. He has been abjectly awful, and even a poor series from him, not this Biblically awful mess, would have probably been enough to give the Pistons the edge. However, throwing all the blame at Duren’s feet misses something bigger. Cade Cunningham, to bury the lead, has also had a dreadful series, and that’s the real reason why the Pistons are down 3-1.

On the surface, calling out Cade Cunningham seems ridiculous. He’s averaging 29.5 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game. Over the course of this series, I’ve repeatedly heard that Cunningham is blameless, should be completely exonerated, and this debacle ought to be removed from his permanent record in the annals of basketball history. The problem is that the three big box score figures of points, assists, and rebounds can lie to you, and they’re absolutely obscuring Cunningham’s true lack of impact.

For the series, Cunningham is shooting 28.6% from three, has an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 47.8%, and a TS% of 54.3%. Outside of his ability to generate free throws, his scoring has been wildly inefficient. For a team that is challenged from 3-point range, as the Pistons are, Cunningham’s awful series from distance has been deadly for their overall offense. They absolutely need defenses to fear his shot off the dribble to pull defenders out of the paint, and he has come up short, wide, and long on the task.

However, Cunningham’s poor shooting performance hasn’t been the Pistons’ biggest problem. While it’d be great if he were converting shots more efficiently, you can live with 29.5 points on a TS% of 54.3% if the playmaking is up to the task. And despite 7.5 assists per game, Cunningham’s playmaking has been disastrous.

The one boxscore stat that gets routinely overlooked is turnovers. I have my theories, but basically, I think it boils down to the fact that great players in the midst of great games usually turn the ball over a bunch, which makes it hard to gauge if a player had a poor turnover performance. However, if the number gets high enough, there really is no coming back, and that’s the world that Cunningham has entered. Over four games, he has 27 turnovers against 30 assists. There really is no excuse for averaging 6.8 turnovers a game, especially when the bar for offense in this series has been this low.

Individual offensive rating isn’t a particularly good stat, but when you post a 97 offensive rating over four games, you can’t be excused from a disastrous offensive performance. While I would usually say that Cunningham should see his turnovers and 3-point shot regress towards his more palatable career figures, this is the second consecutive playoff series where he has absolutely crapped the bed. Last season, against the Knicks, he shot 17.9% from three and averaged 5.3 turnovers per game. Now, he did average 25 points, 8.7 assists, and 8.3 rebounds per game, but it only added up to an individual 102 offensive rating.

I think it’s also worth mentioning that some of Duren’s struggles are probably downstream from Cunningham’s. Supply-dependent centers need some space and supply to really cook, and Cunningham hasn’t been able to provide either at the level he’s accustomed to. I’m not suggesting that all of Duren’s issues are someone else’s fault, but I do think that if Cade had played up to his usual regular-season level, Duren would have better numbers and the Pistons would be in control of this series.

If the Pistons lose this series, I doubt Cade Cunningham will shoulder the blame. He hasn’t been the worst player for the Pistons, and he does carry their offense through thick and thin. However, if you want to call someone a superstar, then the buck needs to stop at them. The Pistons needed more from Cade Cunningham, like last week, and they’ll need him to be more than an impressive collection of counting stats.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.