The Three Maxes
Paolo Banchero, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren all landed max contracts, but they’re completely different.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Orlando Magic have just locked into their three-man cores of the future. Last offseason, the Magic extended Franz Wagner on a rookie scale max extension, then did the same with Paolo Banchero this offseason, while also trading for Desmond Bane. The Thunder already had Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on a max contract, although his deal was extended this offseason, and then signed Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to rookie scale max extensions this summer.
Out of the six, all are on “max contracts,” but it’s in the details where they diverge. Bane’s deal came in at just 24.19% of the cap, which makes it below the max, but close enough that people don’t care to make the distinction. Gilgeous-Alexander’s deal started at 25% of the cap in 2022-23, but his new extension will see him hit 35% of the cap in 2027-28. Wagner’s extension had the ability to hit 30% of the cap this upcoming season, but by missing out on an All-NBA team, largely due to missing time, his is a flat 25%.
However, I want to focus our attention on the three rookie scale extendees from this summer– Paolo Banchero, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren. If you’ve ever heard Brian Windhorst refer to a contact as “the fun max,” he’s talking about rookie scale extensions, and there’s a reason.
A max contract is a blanket term. What counts as a max for one player could be over $10 million less per season for another. The general structure goes as follows, with the current cap year figures provided:
Players with under seven years of service: 25% of salary cap in year of signing or first year of extension with 8% raises based on the first year of salary (5yr, $224.9M)
Players with between seven and nine years of service: 30% of salary cap in year of signing or first year of extension with 8% raises based on the first year of salary (5yr, $269.9M)
Players with ten or more years of service: 35% of salary cap in year of signing or first year of extension with 8% raises based on the first year of salary (5yr, $314.9M)
As you can see, the “fun max” is for significantly less money than the actual maximum contract. However, through awards (All-NBA, MVP, DPOY), players can jump up one service time bracket, which is called a supermax. So, any rookie scale extension with supermax language effectively is a guarantee of 25% of the cap, with the chance of hitting 30% should the player hit an awards criteria in their fourth season. Players can qualify for the supermax early (the Rose rule), but it is relatively rare.
Banchero received a five-year max with a fifth-year player option and standard supermax language, meaning all he needs to do is make an All-NBA team to bump up to a five-year, $287.9 million contract. Williams also got a max, but with tiered supermax language. He has to make first-team All-NBA, win MVP, or win Defensive Player of the Year to get the full 30%, but he’ll see a raise to 26% should he make third-team All-NBA, and 27% if he makes the second-team. Meanwhile, Holmgren landed a flat maximum contract with no supermax language, guaranteeing his max stays fun for the next five seasons. Three maxes, but the difference in value over the life of these deals could be massive.
The best way to illustrate the divergent financial potential in these deals is to just look at the total dollar values.
*Salary Cap Figures are an estimate and vary slightly from outlet to outlet
At the high end (aka super max), Banchero and Williams could earn $287.1 million from 2026-27 to 2030-31, based on a salary cap figure of $165 million in 2026-27. On the low end, all three, but Holmgren for certain, could earn $239.25 million over the life of their deals. And in the middle, we have Williams’ tiered supermax, a long overdue concept to the remedy binary whiplash of suddenly having to pay 30% of your cap to a one-time All-NBA third team selection. Should Williams make the third team All-NBA, he’ll secure $248.8 million, and he’ll earn $258.4 million should he make the second team. This is a stark contrast to Banchero, whose contract doesn’t contain tiered super max language, and will see him make $287.1 million if he lands on any All-NBA team. For a five-year deal, a potential gap of almost $50 million in earnings is nothing to sneeze at.
Obviously, the Thunder negotiated much harder with Williams and Holmgren than the Magic did with Banchero, but that’s not the only way these deals differ. Since Luka Doncic and Trae Young received player options in the fifth year of their rookie scale extensions in 2021, no one has been able to secure that concession, until Banchero. By landing a player option for 2030-31, Banchero can dip his toe back into the market when the cap is projected to be $35 million higher, and it could see him add millions.
By 2030-31, Banchero will have over seven years of service, which brings his baseline max to 30% of the cap, with the chance to hit 35% of the cap should he qualify. The cap, as of now, is projected to come in at $200 million, which could see him earn as much as $70.2 million in 2030-31. So while Banchero’s deal is reported to max out at five years and $287 million, he could potentially earn almost $292 million in that same five-year period, and that’s only if the league’s surprisingly conservative revenue projections continue over the long haul. Not too long ago, people thought the cap would rise by 10% each season through 2030-31. If that were to happen, based upon the 2026-27 figure, the salary cap would be $241 million in 2030-31, and a 30% max would start at $72.5 million, while 35% would net you $84.5 million.
Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Paolo Banchero all signed max extensions, and their contracts, while potentially the same, are likely to see significantly different total salaries between 2026-27 and 2030-31. The max contract has become part of the broader NBA vocabulary, but it ought to be retired. It’s undescriptive and misleading. A max can mean tens of millions of different things depending on who you are. But Holmgren, Williams, and Banchero all signed maximum rookie scale extensions. So they’re on the max, while also on three wildly different contracts.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.