Tyrese Haliburton is broken
…And can he be fixed
In NBA nerd circles, the first half of the 2023-24 season was all about Tyrese Haliburton. Through 33 games he scorched defenses for 23.6 points and 12.5 assists per game on a 59.7% effective field goal percentage as the Pacers posted a league-best 122.9 offensive rating. Then, on January 8th, 2024, Haliburton slipped on the floor, pulled his hamstring, and has been a shell of his former self. Since that fateful day, he has played 58 games and averaged 16.9 points and 9.3 assists per game, and this season his effective field goal percentage has cratered to a career-worst 48.9%, far below his career 56.6% mark.
*All stats as of November 27th, Haliburton has averaged 23.5 PTS and 7.5 AST over the past two games on an eFG% of 75.6%
Blaming injury for Haliburton’s struggles is reasonable. He rushed back from his initial hamstring injury to aid the Pacers’ playoff push– it also allowed him to hit the 65-game threshold to qualify for All-NBA and be eligible to trigger the super-max language in his rookie scale extension–, he then suffered through back spasms in the playoffs, played for Team USA in the Olympics and suffered another lower-body injury, and into the 2024-25 season there’s a belief around the league that his back issues persist.
If you’ve ever suffered a hamstring or back injury, you’re acutely aware of how connected those two muscle groups are. Playing on a balky hamstring can lead to a busted back, and once the kinetic chain is compromised it can take months to regain the strength and confidence to be your best. The tracking data suggests that Haliburton may not be physically 100%. He is not only running less but playing slower. His average speed on offense has dropped from 5.0 MPH last season to 4.78 MPH this season, and he is covering 5.68 fewer feet per minute of play. Even though these seem like minute figures, dropping from 5.0 MPH to 4.78 MPH takes you from 16th to 62nd in average offensive speed.
All that being said, Haliburton hasn’t missed a game this season, indicating a certain level of health, and he has shown flashes of the player he once was. He dropped 35 points and 14 assists on the Knicks, 34 and 12 on the Pelicans, and 25 and 12 on the Mavericks, but he also has four games where he failed to reach double-digit points.
Through 18 games, his offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) has been a comparatively meek 2.7. Just last season, he finished third in the metric at 7.3, and over 125 games, covering the entirety of the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, Haliburton’s combination of elite passing and scoring efficiency led to an offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) of 7.1. Since 1973-74, there have been 86 individual seasons with an OBPM of 7.0 and greater, and these are the players and how many times they’ve accomplished it.
Giannis Antetokounmpo x 2 - Charles Barkley x 4 - Larry Bird x 2 - Kobe Bryant x 1
Vince Carter x 1 - Stephen Curry x 7 - Anthony Davis x 1 - Luka Doncic x 3
Kevin Durant x 3 - Joel Embiid x 1 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander x 1
Tyrese Haliburton x 2 - James Harden x 5 - LeBron James x 10 - Magic Johnson x 4
Nikola Jokic x 5 - Michael Jordan x 9 - Kawhi Leonard x 1 - Damian Lillard x 4
Kevin Love x 1 - Karl Malone x 1 - Tracy McGrady x 2 - Dirk Nowitzki x 2
Shaquille O’Neal x 4 - Chris Paul x 2 - David Robinson x 1 - John Stockton x 1
Isaiah Thomas x 1 - Dwayne Wade x 2 - Russell Westbrook x 1
Dominique Wilkins x 1 - Trae Young x 1
As much as listing every single player to post an OBPM of 7.0 or greater season nukes an article’s readability, it’s necessary to highlight just how high an offensive level Haliburton established pre-injury. Exceeding a 7.0 OBPM virtually guarantees an All-NBA selection, and hitting it once has led to a trip to the Hall of Fame. Not to mention, Haliburton is one of the youngest players, along with LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and Chris Paul, to have achieved the feat. If his current state of production is really his new reality, it would mark one of the most dispiriting dropoffs in NBA history, which is what makes his decline such a worthy investigation.
The basis of Haliburton’s excellence has always been his shot. He’s a career 38.8% 3-point shooter on 6.4 attempts per game and has paired that with an efficient mid-range jump shot. The threat of his shot draws defenders away from the paint, opening up driving and passing lanes for him to exploit. The best passers are almost always dangerous scorers in some capacity as the threat of a shot creates more passing lanes than the threat of a pass creates shots.
Unfortunately, Haliburton’s shot has abandoned him to start the season. Before delving into the data, a simple image of his shot chart from last season and this season illustrates, in broad strokes, his decline.
*shot chart via Shotcreator.com
Haliburton has gone from one of the league’s more dangerous three-level scorers to generally mediocre. As his efficiency has tumbled, he has taken fewer shots and has found it harder to set teammates up. It would be fair to suggest that Haliburton opting for the right basketball play has snowballed into him making the wrong decision. Great players sometimes need to do the wrong thing to do the right thing.
The most concerning part of Haliburton’s shooting woes is his decline has pretty much been across the board. This isn’t a situation where he’s just shooting poorly on pull-ups or catch-and-shoot opportunities, but rather, his efficiency has dropped sizably across a whole host of shot and play types.
*Data via NBA.com
Perhaps the most alarming development has been his decline in driving efficiency from 2023-24 to 2024-25. Even though he is averaging more minutes per game, 34.8 up from 32.2, he is averaging fewer drives, 11.5 compared to 12.1, shooting worse, 51.6% to 57.1% eFG%, making more passes, 6.5 to 6.1, but generating fewer assists, 1.4 to 1.8. A dip in outside shooting over 20 games isn’t a huge concern, but a decline in volume and efficiency on drives suggests some things under the hood need recalibration. Simply put, Tyrese Haliburton needs to rediscover his shot to rediscover his game, but some interesting environmental factors could be further muting his performance.
Tyrese Haliburton didn’t get Steve Nash comps just because he was racking up assists and bombing from three. Last season, the Pacers lived up to their name with Haliburton at the controls. Before his January injury, the Pacers played at a pace of 103.2 possessions per game and looked like the reincarnation of the mid-2000s Steve Nash led Suns. However, from his injury on they only played at a 100.3 possession pace, and this season, they’ve slowed all the way down to 99.4 possessions.
The Pacers’ decline in pace has coincided with Haliburton’s drop in production, but it also coincides with the introduction of Pascal Siakam. While Siakam is an excellent player, he doesn’t appear to amplify Haliburton. His presence on the court slows the Pacers’ time to shoot, reduces Haliburton’s rim attempts, and has lowered his shot quality according to PBPStats.
Unfortunately, if Siakam is a poor fit with Haliburton, there’s not much they can do about it. The pair are locked up on long-term deals, and they’re not going to pull the plug on the experiment anytime soon. Chances are they need more time to figure out how to play together. They’ve only played 1,377 minutes together and for much of it Haliburton was physically compromised, but Haliburton is at his best in an up-tempo spaced-out environment, and Siakam loves to methodically take defenders on from the mid-range. While the pair don’t want to occupy the same spaces, their favored styles generally lead to vastly different offensive structures.
If injury is the root cause of Haliburton’s struggles, then time, rest, and recovery will get him back to his best. However, there’s more going on than just injury. Haliburton’s shot is off, and while it’s likely to rebound, his 2023-24 shooting figures may end up a career-best. The Pacers are also playing differently than before and have introduced a new element to their offense in Pascal Siakam. It would be a historical anomaly if Haliburton doesn’t recover his All-Star form, but it’s possible the changes to their roster and the effects it has had on their scheme could prevent him from reaching the All-NBA heights he achieved prior. I’m optimistic that won’t be the case, but only time will tell.
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