Western Conference Finals Preview
The Nuggets and Lakers face off with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. Who has the edge?
The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets took divergent paths to reach the Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets used the offseason to flesh out their roster and hit the ground running with the healthy returns of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Meanwhile, the Lakers stood pat with a poorly constructed roster and flopped to a 2-10 start. The Nuggets enjoyed good health nearly all season, while the Lakers had to weather extended absences from Anthony Davis and LeBron James.
Through the first 56 games of the season, the Nuggets coasted to 38 wins and were the top seed in the Western Conference, and the Lakers limped to 25 wins and were nestled in 13th place. Following the Lakers’ trade of Russell Westbrook and a future first-round pick for D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley, they sprinted to an 18-8 closing record to secure the seventh seed. The Nuggets scuffled, by their lofty standards, to finish the season 15-11 and secured the Western Conference’s best record.
Beyond the shape of their respective seasons, the Nuggets and Lakers win games on opposite ends of the court. The Lakers morphed into a dominant defense, posting a 112.3 defensive rating over the final 26 games, while the Nuggets finished the season with an offensive rating of 117.6. In the playoffs, the two have only seen their strengths amplified. The Nuggets have the best offensive rating in the playoffs at 120.2, and the Lakers have the best defensive rating at 107.5.
The Nuggets are an offensive juggernaut built on continuity, and the Lakers are a defensive wrecking ball thrown together at the last possible moment. And whoever ends up victorious will prove which route is better for daytime sports punditry.
The Stars
The two most statistically dominant players of the past 20 years are set to go head-to-head. LeBron James and Nikola Jokic are the only players since Michael Jordan to lead the league in Win Shares per 48, Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus, and Value Over a Replacement Player for three consecutive seasons. Unfortunately, this isn’t a case of two All-Time greats going at in their primes.
Jokic is at the top of his game, but LeBron, at 38, just capped off what was his worst season since his rookie year and is in the midst of his worst playoffs ever. However, worst ever for LeBron has a completely different meaning than it does for 99% of NBA players. His 6.1 BPM was the 13th-best mark in the league, and his playoff BPM of 6.4 is eighth and a fraction off of Jayson Tatum and Stephen Curry’s. 20 seasons in, LeBron, while not an MVP candidate anymore, is still one of the 15 best players in the world. Father time is undefeated, but LeBron is really making him work for this one.
What Jokic has done over the past three seasons has simply not been given the praise it deserves. He is in the midst of one of the greatest stretches of basketball ever, and he has only upped his game in these playoffs. He has a playoff-best 14.3 BPM, and if he were to maintain it, it would go down as the fourth-best playoff BPM in history. If advanced metrics aren’t your thing, here are his boring old box score stats; 30.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 9.7 assists per game on a 58.9% effective field goal percentage. The Nuggets go as Jokic goes, and big honey is chugging along at warp speed.
While LeBron is the biggest star on the Lakers, their postseason excellence has been built around Anthony Davis’ all-encompassing defensive dominance. With Davis on the court, the Lakers have a defensive rating of 108.15 and held opponents to 46.64% on 2-pointers against a playoff average of 53.2%. Part of the Lakers’ surprising run to the Western Conference Finals has been their luck when Davis sits. Their defensive rating actually improves to 106.27, but that’s purely a function of their opponents’ shooting 28.18% on 3-pointers, as their 2-point field goal percentage balloons to 55.63%.
The Lakers have Anthony Davis and LeBron James, and the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Murray battled through an up-and-down regular season coming off an ACL injury that cost him the previous two postseasons but has been at his best in these playoffs. His 3.9 offensive BPM is a 50% increase from his regular season mark of 2.6, and he has kept his scoring efficiency flat even as he has increased his scoring load. Murray isn’t a superstar and might not even be an All-Star, but the Nuggets need him to be one to get through the Lakers. He’s shown an ability to up his game in the playoffs, and they’ll need that to hold.
Relevant Data
The Nuggets were the better team in the regular season and have been the best team throughout the playoffs. I wouldn’t take too much stock in their +9.5 playoff net rating, but it’s always a good thing to blow the doors off your opponents. The Lakers didn’t luck their way into the Conference Finals either. Their net rating of +5.1 is the third-best in the playoffs, and they had to go through a two-seed in the first round.
While most people will be asking, can the Lakers’ defense slow down the Nuggets’ offense, I think a better question is, can the Nuggets’ defense render the Lakers’ offense obsolete? The Lakers’ playoff offensive rating of 112.6 is the worst of the remaining teams, and the Nuggets’ defensive rating of 110.7 is second only to the Lakers. The only thing the Lakers have done well on offense throughout the playoffs is generate free throws. Their .274 free throw rate is the best of the four conference finalists. The Nuggets have been okay about sending teams to the line on defense, but they haven’t been elite. The Lakers aren’t a great shotmaking team, they don’t get a lot of offensive rebounds, and they’re not abnormally stingy about turnovers. To score enough points, they’re going to have to get to the line.
One key area to watch is 3-point shooting. The Nuggets and Lakers have the second and third-lowest 3-point attempt rates in all of the playoffs, only the Phoenix Suns took fewer, but their efficiency on those shots varies massively. The Nuggets have hit 37.9% of their threes, while the Lakers have hit 33.1%. Those figures align neatly with their regular season averages of 37.9% for the Nuggets and 34.6% for the Lakers. With how effectively the Lakers have walled off the middle of the floor and rim (opponents have shot 48.8% on twos), the Nuggets may decide to bomb with abandon. If that happens, the Nuggets may unwittingly stumble on an even more efficient offense.
Final Thoughts
With all due respect to the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics, the Western Conference Finals should be a far more entertaining series. The Nuggets are legitimately excellent, and the Lakers have been incredible since they decided to subtract Russell Westbrook for role players that make sense next to their two stars. This series has the best offensive player of the playoffs, Nikola Jokic, pulling the strings for its best offense and the best defensive player, Anthony Davis, wrecking those strings like a fire-breathing dragon.
What the Lakers have done defensively has been absurd, but I’m dubious that they can keep it up. Jokic is simply different than anyone they’ve faced. He can pull Davis out of the post and hit his teammates for backdoor cuts, he can bully his way to the rim for layups, floaters, and fouls, and he punishes double teams with more ferocity than Devin Booker during a summertime pick-up game. The Lakers need to be an elite defense to overcome their offensive shortcomings, and the Nuggets are well-suited to make them look average.
For the Lakers to score enough to win, they need LeBron to turn back the clock. Unfortunately, those days look gone. LeBron will have possessions where he looks unstoppable, but for him to play 40 minutes a night, he has to manage his energy far too much to take over a game. D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Davis could all go nuts for stretches, but it will take true outlier performances from those three if LeBron is simply the greatest 38-year-old ever and not an actual demigod.
The Nuggets were the best team in the Western Conference. They’ve been the best team in the playoffs. They have the best player. Their supporting cast is excellent. They have more counters on offense than any team the Lakers have faced, and their defense looks good enough to weather a mediocre Lakers’ offense. The Nuggets should win this series. I’m confident they will.