What’s Winning in the NBA Playoffs
A quick look into what is and isn't winning in the playoffs
There are a lot of sayings about the NBA playoffs, and while they usually feel true, they aren’t necessarily supported by the data. So instead of getting bogged down with the endless basketballisms, let’s take a look at what has actually been winning games.
Through 33 individual playoff games, we now have a sample that’s sort of worthy of analysis. A single playoff isn’t really that large of a sample, but with that attitude, we wouldn’t have anything to write about. Unsurprisingly, on a single-game basis, the correlation between converting more baskets than your opponent and outscoring them is incredibly high. FG differential and point differential have a 0.827 correlation, but that’s so obvious it hardly bears mentioning. Among non-drop-dead-obvious indicators, the 3-point battle reigns supreme.
The correlation between single-game point differential and made 3-point differential is 0.629, while the correlation between point differential and 3-point percentage is even higher at 0.641. For all the consternation about effort, rotations, rebounding, and turnovers, the 3-point battle is still the single best predictor of individual game outcomes. Now, winning the 3-point battle doesn’t guarantee victory, but it’s mighty helpful. The team that should be most heartened by this is the Denver Nuggets. They’ve lost the 3-point shooting battle in all five games against the Timberwolves, but have managed to win two of five games. If you were wondering, 2-point efficiency differential has little correlation to point differential at only 0.362.
After 3-point shooting, the next best indicator is defensive rebound differential at 0.541, but that’s kind of cheating. For there to be a defensive rebound opportunity, someone needs to miss a shot. Functionally, raw rebounding figures also capture shooting efficiency. So, if you hear about a team needing to win the rebounding battle, just know that winning the shooting efficiency battle helps tremendously.
The turnover and steal battle are next in line. Interestingly, winning the steal battle correlates to point differential (0.51) slightly better than the turnover battle (0.498). Now, a correlation of 0.5 isn’t particularly strong, but it outdoes winning the shot/possession battle, which only comes in at 0.397.
At the end of the day, winning in the playoffs is about playing good basketball, with the most variable variable being 3-point shooting. At this point, it’s annoying analysis, but 3-point shooting variance plays a massive role in deciding a single game of basketball, and it’s the least impacted by coaching and player performances. As 3-point shooting volume increases, the NBA playoffs will only grow more random.
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