2024-25 NBA Awards Part I: MVP

Nikola Jokic v Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be the best MVP race in history

In lieu of a Five Things I May or May Not Have Liked this Monday, I’m going to be handing out my season awards in four parts. I generally try and rely on a combination of value-based metrics and a smattering of the “eye test.” At the end of the day, a player’s numbers are the best reflection of their overall, season-long performance, and defaulting to your eyes and/or gut has always felt a bit egotistical to me. Unless you watched every NBA game, your eyes have missed data points that the data hasn’t. I’m aware that this is just my personal opinion on how to gauge players and that strictly using data-based metrics can lead you astray, but I think it generally gives you a better view than the “that boy nice” side of the bus.

Part I: MVP

Because I don’t have a ballot, I’ve decided it’s pointless to fill out five names when two players will receive every single first and second-place vote for the award. If you’re interested in who I think should finish three through five, check out Part II of my awards series with the All-NBA first team.

SGA’s MVP Elevator Pitch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a season for the ages. He led the league in scoring at 32.7 points per game on a true shooting percentage (TS%) that was 11% better than the league average, and he dished 6.4 assists while only surrendering 2.4 turnovers per game. His combination of volume and efficiency led the Thunder to the league’s best record (68-14), the second-best net rating of all time (+12.8), and powered their offense to the league’s third-best offensive rating (120.3). His offensive contributions cannot be understated. With Gilgeous-Alexander on the court, the Thunder had an offensive rating of 124.02, and without him, it fell to 113.03. 15 years ago, he would have won the MVP without anyone else even having a case, but the times have changed with how voters view the MVP.

Jokic’s MVP Elevator Pitch

Nikola Jokic had a season for the ages. He didn’t lead the league in any box score category, but instead, he finished top three in points (29.6), assists (10.2), and rebounds (12.7) per game and became the third player ever to average a triple-double for a season. His TS% of 66.3% was 15% better than the league average and was the highest mark for anyone with a usage rate over 17%. The Nuggets, despite his excellence, were not a juggernaut, but that was due to the minutes Jokic didn’t play. With Jokic on the court, the Nuggets had a net rating of +10.85 and an offensive rating of 127.48, but without him, they collapsed to a net rating of -8.01 and an offensive rating of 107.06. Jokic has said this is the best season of his career, a career with three MVPs already, and the numbers tend to agree.

2024-25 MVP

By the slimest of margins, I have Nikola Jokic over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP. Honestly, both men deserve to win the award, and I have no gripes with someone who picks Gilgeous-Alexander. This is the third time in history that two qualified players have ended the season with box plus/minuses of +11 or greater, which qualifies as an all-time great season. However, there can only be one, and I believe Jokic edges Gilgeous-Alexander for a few reasons.

The first edge for Jokic was that his offensive creation was simply absurd. He beats Gilgeous-Alexander in offensive BPM (OBPM), Dunk’s and 3’s offensive estimated plus/minus (OEPM), and Neil Paine’s Offensive Raptor (ORAP).

While there are other all-in-one metrics, these three are viewed as worthwhile and not behind a paywall, and they all paint Jokic as the superior offensive creator. This is an important distinction because everyone who makes these metrics agrees that the offensive side of the ball is where there is the most accuracy. Simply put, it is far more likely that Jokic has had the better offensive season than SGA, and offensive excellence is the backbone of the MVP.

Jokic’s next edge is how much more he elevates the Nuggets than Gilgeous-Alexander raises the Thunder. In simple terms, the Thunder won 82.8% of their games with SGA and 83.3% without him. Conversely, the Nuggets won 65.7% of their games with Jokic and 33.3% without him. Small sample size caveats with caps lock on do apply, but the On/Off data backs it up. The Nuggets are dead on arrival without Jokic, while the Thunder remain a strong side even without Gilgeous-Alexander.

If you do the quick math, without Jokic, the Nuggets have a -8.5 net rating, while the Thunder come in at +5.8 sans-Gilgeous-Alexander. This might seem like I’m punishing SGA for playing on the superior team, but basketball is about winning, and MVP is about who drives winning the most, and there’s compelling evidence that Jokic elevated his team’s chances this season more than any other player in the world. If you’re unconvinced, just ask Team USA.

The next area where Jokic has a distinct edge is his performance against the league’s best defenses. Using RealGM’s advanced stats against top 10 defenses, Jokic once again comes out on top. His combination of elite shooting efficiency and playmaking drove him to an offensive rating of 136.1. For reference, the top 10 defenses in the league averaged a defensive rating of 111.06. However, what makes this even more impressive is that Jokic had to face the Thunder’s league-best defense four times, while Gilgeous-Alexander only saw them in practice.

Good teams beat up on bad teams, but great teams beat good teams. Jokic’s ability to play at such a high level against the best defenses gives the Nuggets a chance to be a great team on any given night. Gilgeous-Alexander, as you can see, is no slouch in this department either, but Jokic is on another level. The Thunder’s record against teams with a winning record was far better than the Nuggets, but that’s largely due to the struggles of Denver’s bench against strong defenses.

Thus far, my argument for Jokic has solely focused on offense, and the conventional wisdom is that Gilgeous-Alexander is the better defender, which should bridge the gap between their offense and slingshot Gilgeous-Alexander to the MVP (and it very well may). However, I don’t actually think he is a better defender than Jokic. Which I’m aware is a spicy take.

The way people talk about defense in basketball is almost always through the lens of positional ranking. Yes, SGA is a better defender for his position, but Jokic happens to play the most impactful defensive position. From a team-building perspective, this is a significant factor, but as it pertains to MVP and regular season value, I think it’s a moot point.

Using baseball positional defensive adjustments as my guide, I’m going to make a cross-sports analogy. Gilgeous-Alexander gets the easiest defensive assignment for the Thunder. In most respects, he’s akin to a first baseman. Jokic, by nature of being a center, is tasked with defending teams’ primary actions and the basket, which makes him a shortstop. If you ask any baseball fan, “Hey, is there a first baseman who is a better defender than a shortstop?”, you will, without fail, get a resounding no.

Jokic, by virtue of being a center, is put in more impactful defensive situations than SGA is as the Thunder’s fifth defensive cog. That may not seem fair, but basketball is an unfair game that prioritizes and rewards size. When you account for the pair’s defensive positional adjustment, I think it’s really hard to say that Gilgeous-Alexander is unequivocally a better defender, and he needs that to overcome the clear offensive gap.

Now that I’ve made my case for Nikola Jokic, I’m going to wax poetically about SGA. In 90% of seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander would have a slam dunk, no-questions-asked case for MVP. He’s leading the league in scoring, he does it on elite efficiency, he’s the offensive engine for the best team in the league, and he provides real defensive value. All of his advanced all-in-one metrics are elite (I’m sure some have him over Jokic), and the Thunder go from good to juggernaut-mode with him on the court. Every single box he checks. It’s a 100% on the test with a smiley face at a prep school. You can’t argue with the excellence. It is what it is. I just think Jokic’s season is a 100%, with a smiley face, and a great job with two exclamation points at a public school. I’m resigned to the fact that Jokic is highly unlikely to win the award, but I think he deserves it. He transmutes the Nuggets from chicken to gold, which is an alchemy no other player can conjure.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.