2024-25 NBA Awards Part III: DPOY & All-Defensive

DPOY, All-Defensive, and fun way to parse out the best defenders in the league

In Part I, I made my case for who deserves MVP between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Part II contained my All-NBA picks and eight players who were in the mix but ultimately missed the cut. Now, Part III has my Defensive Player of the Year and All-Defensive team selections. Before we get into the selections, I need to go over my methodology. It’s not a perfect system, but I think it’s a good start and makes use of a lot of the available data that we have.

All-Defensive and DPOY Methodology

The biggest problem with all-in-one basketball metrics is on the defensive side of the ball. The available data has grown significantly in the past decade, but it’s still really hard to parse credit. Take a pick-and-roll attempt that ends in a missed floater. That’s undoubtedly a good defensive outcome for the team, but who deserves more credit? The center defending the rim or the guard who fought like hell over the screen?

To determine who had the best defensive season(s), I decided to be a huge fucking nerd. I made a short list of 13 players who graded out well in a host of metrics. This was the only arbitrary part, but it was necessary for time because I had to enter relevant data from a host of different sources. I decided to use a blend of defensive metrics and on/off data as the backbone of my analysis.

The three all-in-one metrics I used were the defensive components of Neil Paine’s Raptor (DRap), Dunks and 3s EPM (DEPM), and Basketball Reference’s BPM (DBPM). I also took a player’s on-court defensive rating relative to the league average (114.6) and their on/off defensive rating. I then added up each player’s DRap, DEPM, DBPM, and the average of their on-court defensive rating relative to the league average and their on/off defensive rating multiplied by negative one, and then divided that figure by four to get each player’s Defensive Impact Rating (DIR).

Once I had DIR, I then multiplied DIR by total minutes played to get Raw Defensive Impact (RDI). And while I could have stopped there, I wanted to add a positional weight to better reward players who play more impactful defensive positions.

To calculate positional weight, I used NBA.com’s defended field goal attempts as my proxy. My thought was simple: on a league-wide scale, how often each position defends field goal attempts is probably a good indication of defensive importance. The backbone of good team defense is limiting opponent field goals, and defending them seems like the best way to do that.

Grabbing every player that defended 500 or more total field goals and played in at least 50 games, I had 227 players in my sample. I first found the overall defended field goals per game from the sample, and then broke it down by position (Center, Forward/Center, Forward, Guard/Forward, and Guard). Once I found the average defended field goals per game at each position, I divided that figure by the overall average to find my positional weight.

For the final bit of data manipulation, I multiplied each player’s DIR by their positional weight and then basked in the glory of overly simple calculations. Sorry to spoil the suspense, but the methodology is the star here.

Defensive Player of the Year

Ivica Zubac

Ivica Zubac is the Defensive Player of the Year for a few reasons. First, he’s amazing at defense. He finished fifth in defended field goals per game with 18.3 and held opponents to a 45.8% field goal percentage, which was 3.4% lower than expected according to NBA.com. He also led the league in defensive rebounds and played 80 games for a total of 2,582 minutes. While the defensive metrics didn’t absolutely love his season, his on-court defensive impact was the best among my candidates. When you factor in that he plays the most impactful defensive position and add his sheer volume, he pretty easily walks away with the award.

All-Defensive First Team

Ivica Zubac, Rudy Gobert, Kris Dunn, Draymond Green, Amen Thompson

Rudy Gobert

I find it a bit strange that a four time winner and reigning DPOY hasn’t really been in the conversation for this award, but that’s just how it has gone for Rudy Gobert this season. I think a big issue hurting Gobert’s candidacy is that the Timberwolves went from having the best defense in the league last season to finishing sixth. However, much of their decline hasn’t been on Gobert’s watch. The Timberwolves had a defensive rating of 109.7 with Gobert on the court this season, and last season, that figure came in at 108.83. He might not be France’s best defensive center anymore, but Gobert still impacts the defensive end like few others.

Kris Dunn

I’m not even sure if Kris Dunn is eligible for this award, but I simply do not care. He played in 74 games. On a rate basis, Dunn was the best defender in the league despite the negative positional weight. He led all candidates in the defensive impact metrics, and his on-court defensive impact was massive. What stopped Dunn from claiming the award was his lack of minutes. Sneakily, offense matters for DPOY. If you can’t contribute in some way on offense, it’s really hard to rack up enough minutes to win the award.

Draymond Green

Draymond Green hit the campaign trail hard for this award, and his incessant pleading might ultimately get him the real deal. However, in my cold, hard world of spreadsheets and pseudo-statistics, he’ll have to settle for fourth and a spot on the All-Defensive First Team. Green had an excellent season, but he failed to hit 2,000 minutes, and the Warriors weren’t that much better on defense with him.

Amen Thompson

Right after the basketball devil, can we get an Amen? Why, yes, we can. Amen Thompson is the real deal. He might be the best all-around defender in the league, and all the metrics are in alignment on his impact. Landing on the All-Defensive First Team as a second-year player is impressive, and the only things that held him back were his positional adjustment and total minutes. If you want to quibble over classifying him as a Guard/Forward, I’d agree, but I also think it’s accurate. He kind of plays his own defensive position, which I can’t yet quantify.

All-Defensive Second Team

Evan Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr, Dyson Daniels, Jarrett Allen, Jalen Williams

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley, like clockwork, posts an excellent defensive season that sees him fall right below the top candidates. Mobley’s versatility makes him one of the most valuable and impactful defenders in the world. He can protect the rim, defend out on the perimeter, and also finish the job on the boards. One day, he may win the award, but because he splits frontcourt duties with Jarrett Allen, he’ll probably have to wait for that pairing to run its course to rack up the statistics necessary. If the Cavaliers are smart, that day won’t come anytime soon.

Jaren Jackson Jr

I’ve long been on the Jaren Jackson Jr’s defense is a tad overrated train, but by a tad overrated, I mean he’s one of the ten best defenders in the league and not the absolute best. Jackson’s block percentage has been cut in half (9.6% to 4.7%) since his DPOY season in 2022-23, but he’s still one of the most impactful rim protectors in the league. Similar to Evan Mobley, he can also handle his business in space, but he might be the worst positional rebounder in NBA history. Jackson has played all of his career minutes at power forward or center, but has only averaged 7.0 rebounds per-36 minutes and clocks in at 6.8 this season.

Dyson Daniels

Dyson Daniels became the first player since Nate McMillan in 1993-94 to average over three steals per game. And since steals are the most valuable defensive action, the defensive metrics absolutely adore him. However, he was the only player whose team was worse than league average on defense with him on the court, and the Hawks actually improved on defense without him. Daniels deserves to make an All-Defensive team, but I don’t think has a real case for DPOY.

Jarrett Allen

Jarrett Allen has quietly become one of the league’s best centers. He isn’t a dominating rim protector or freakishly nimble on defending on the perimeter, but he’s good enough at both that the end result is one of the best defensive players, period. Allen’s jack-of-trades, master-of-none defensive contributions pair perfectly next to Evan Mobley. He could likely be the lone defensive anchor for an elite defense, but for now, he’ll just have to make do with being a core contributor for a 64-win team.

Jalen Williams

The Oklahoma City Thunder had one of the best defenses of the 21st century, but they’ll only end up with one All-Defensive team selection, although Lu Dort was in consideration. The problem is that their three best defenders by most metrics, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Chet Holmgren, all failed to reach 60 games played. However, Jalen Williams had an excellent defensive season in his own right and managed to play 2,237 minutes. While this wasn’t a factor, I’m glad my methodology gave Williams the nod over Dort because he was called on to play center when both Hartenstein and Holmgren were out injured.

For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like, you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.