Really sharp observation on the down-year pattern. The CBA's apron restrictions forcing teams to prioritize contract value over talent feels like a feature becoming a bug, teams dumping underperforming contracts instead of optimizing for playoff runs creates some perverse incentives. The age data was particuarly interesting too, younger guys declining more than the vets is unexpected.
Really sharp observation on the down-year pattern. The CBA's apron restrictions forcing teams to prioritize contract value over talent feels like a feature becoming a bug, teams dumping underperforming contracts instead of optimizing for playoff runs creates some perverse incentives. The age data was particuarly interesting too, younger guys declining more than the vets is unexpected.
The age thing is partially due to survivor bias. You only get to be an old guy in the NBA if you were a good young guy
I think we’re in a correction period. My guess is the end result will be a better distribution of salary