NBA New Year Check-Up Part 4: Pretender Contenders
It’s a new year but the same season. Here’s how every NBA team is doing
The halfway mark of the season has just been reached and team quality is beginning to solidify. There are a few teams still riding luck to excellent or poor records, but at this stage in the season, we have a very good idea of the league hierarchy.
This cohort of six teams all believe they can make some noise in the playoffs, and a few probably think they can win it all. Be sure to check out Part One, Part Two, and Part Three. A few teams in this tier have seen their net rating slide where they should have been in Part Three and vice-versa, but alas, I don’t want to write 8,000 words in one sitting.
Orlando Magic: +0.9 Net Rating // 23-19 Record
Abra Kadabra, razzamataz, slam dunk sesame. Hocus Pocus, Alakazam, we’re gonna set that spirit free– Orlando Magic. While nothing, and I mean nothing, will ever top the franchise’s theme song, the Magic are enjoying a remarkable season all things considered. A +0.9 net rating isn’t special, it was +1.6 before their loss to the Bucks, but the Magic have weathered a slew of critical injuries, most notably to Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, to a 23-19 record, and sit in fifth in the Eastern Conference.
Even though the Magic will continue to be without the Wagner brothers– Moritz for the rest of the season, and Franz for a few more weeks—, Paolo Banchero has returned, and not a moment too soon. The Magic own the 28th-ranked offense (108.2) and look unlikely to end their 12-season streak of posting a bottom-ten offense, but Banchero should give this unit a lift.
Through eight games, Banchero has been sensational. He’s averaging 27.6 points, 4.9 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game on a 55.8% effective field goal percentage. While it’s unlikely he’ll continue to be this efficient scoring the ball, he’ll give this offense a baseline they’ve lacked since Franz Wagner went down. The Magic are also in store for some positive 3-point shooting regression. Because it’s not 1987, it’s highly unlikely that the Magic will continue to shoot a league-worst 30.7% from three. With Banchero bending defenses, a few more made threes, and the eventual return of Wagner, the Magic’s offense should get to a point where their defense can really start to win them games.
For all the attention Banchero and Wagner receive as jumbo-sized on-ball creators, the Magic’s defense is their bread and butter. Through sheer tenacity, the Magic have built the league’s second-ranked defense (107.3). They’re second in the league in defensive turnover rate (15.8%) and first in defensive rebound rate (78.6%), but are only 13th in defensive eFG% (53.6%) and 28th in FT/FGA ratio (.221). They’re the ultimate try-hards on defense and it works. While I’d be more bullish on their playoff prospects if they were a bit better at limiting opponent shot-making, winning the possession battle is a proven recipe for success in the regular season.
The Magic have upward mobility should they ever be healthy for an extended stretch. However, their performance this season shows just how high a floor this team has. I don’t expect them to challenge for the three seed, but, with how well both Banchero and Wagner have played when healthy, it’s not out of the question.
Minnesota Timberwolves: +1.9 Net Rating // 21-19 Record
The Minnesota Timberwolves have taken a sizable step back from where they were a season ago. Powered by the league’s best defense and an average offense, the Wolves won 56 games and finished a game out of first place in the Western Conference. Fast forward eight months and the Timberwolves have the sixth-ranked defense (110.5) and the 19th-ranked offense (112.4). This is still a good team, but they’re far less frightening than they were.
The combination of trading Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo and Mike Conley’s age-induced decline has seen the Wolves’ net rating drop from +6.6 to +1.9. While Anthony Edwards has seen a slight improvement in offensive BPM (2.7 to 3.0), it hasn’t been nearly enough to offset the losses.
Unfortunately, the Wolves haven’t been bitten by shooting variance, and you could argue they’ve benefitted from it. The Wolves are fourth in 3-point efficiency (38%), fifth in defensive 3-point efficiency (34.9%), and fourth in 3-point efficiency difference (+3.1%). Throw in the Wolves have been incredibly healthy, and there are few indicators that the Wolves have some latent wins coming their way.
Not to relitigate the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, but far too many smart people viewed that trade in a favorable light. The trade was solely for financial considerations, and going from Towns to Randle at power forward was unquestionably a massive talent downgrade. DiVincenzo was excellent for the Knicks last season, but it was clearly a career year. The Knicks sold high on a role player and a faux-All-Star to land a player who will likely end up on an All-NBA team. The Wolves avoided a financial catastrophe but at the cost of the on-court product. That’s why the Wolves look like they’ll be fighting to avoid the play-in, instead of fighting for home court in the first-round.
Milwaukee Bucks: +2.3 Net Rating // 21-17 Record
The Bucks don’t make sense. They are a middling team, despite Giannis Antetokounmpo playing at a near MVP level and Damian Lillard producing like an All-Star. That alone should cut through the Eastern Conference’s soft underbelly for a net rating in the +3.0 range. And for all the consternation over their defensive frailties, they’re ranked eighth in defensive rating (111.4) but 13th on offense (113.7). Entering the season, if you told Bucks fans they’d have the eighth-ranked defense through 38 games, they’d have sworn they were fighting for the one seed. The key for the Bucks is realizing their offense potential.
It defies belief that a team with two elite offensive creators, a knockdown stretch five, and the league’s second-best 3-point efficiency is barely an above-league-average offense (113.4). The single biggest driver of offensive success is shooting efficiency, and the Bucks are elite in that regard. Their eFG% of 56.4% is fourth in the league, but that’s where the good times end.
The Bucks are league average in TOV% (12.9%), dead last in OREB% (19.6%), and 22nd in FT/FGA ratio (.181). The dark truth is the Bucks are losing the real math game. In popular basketball discourse, the NBA math game is take and make more threes, but in order of per event value, 3-pointers are pretty low on the abacus.
The possession war is far more fruitful than the eFG% battle, and an average trip to the free throw line is the most efficient shot in the game. The Bucks on average allow their opponent to attempt 2.8 more field goal attempts and hit 1.2 more free throws than them per game. That may not seem like much, but it functionally puts them in a 4.17-point hole at the start of each game, and it’s incredibly difficult to shoot yourself out of such a deficit.
As an example, the Cavaliers lead the NBA in TS%% at 62.0% or 1.24 points per shot attempt, and the Charlotte Hornets rank last with a TS% of 53.8% or 1.076 points per shot attempt. On a per-shot basis, the Cavaliers only have a 0.164-point edge over the Hornets. The simple math is that for every additional shot attempt the Hornets gain over the Cavaliers, it takes 6.56 shot attempts for the Cavaliers to make up the difference, and that’s between the two teams with the largest margins.
The Bucks’ first order of business is to close their offensive possession gap. Whether it’s fewer turnovers or more offensive rebounds, the Bucks need their elite shot-making to be gravy, not a necessity to pull even. Some of this could be remedied on defense, but the Bucks are already an elite defensive rebounding team (3rd, 77.4%), and their poor defensive TOV% (12.0%, 25th) is a feature, not a bug. Changing the defense would be a mistake when it has actually been their carrying trait.
The final offensive problem the Bucks have is their reliance on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s free-throw shooting. The Bucks are second to last in team free throw efficiency (72.8%), and it’s entirely a product of Antetokounmpo’s 58.6% shooting on 10.4 attempts per game. His accounting for 48.3% of the Bucks’ free throw attempts completely nullifies the fact that all non-Antetokounmpo Bucks are shooting 86.5% from the free throw line.
While Giannis shooting better from the line would be a godsend for the Bucks offense, this issue isn’t all on him. The rest of the roster needs to actually get to the line. No qualified player comes close to his team free throw share of 48.3%, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being the next closest at 41.3%. And this isn’t a Damian Lillard problem either. Lillard was one of the league’s best free throw merchants in Portland, but his 0.379 free throw attempt rate this season is an elite mark and better than his career average. Unfortunately, this might be a problem this roster can’t solve, which means it’s on Giannis to shoot better from the line.
The Bucks do have some upward mobility. Their defense is solid, and considering their personnel, I’m confident that they’re getting the most out of the unit. However, the offense has been an utter and complete disappointment. The good news is they do the hardest part well– hit shots. If they can boost their offensive rebounding and cut their turnovers just a bit, it’ll have a massive cascading effect on their offense due to their elite shot-making. After that, all the Bucks can do is pray Giannis starts hitting 65% of his free throws instead of 58%.
Sacramento Kings: +2.3 Net Rating // 21-20 Record
The Sacramento Kings currently have the league’s tenth-best net rating at +2.3, which is surprising because they were the first team to fire their head coach. You know, Mike Brown, the guy who won Coach of the Year two seasons ago when he ended the Kings' eternity playoff drought, and the guy they just gave a massive extension to this summer. Yeah, they fired that guy. Thankfully for Kings management, the team has responded swimmingly to Brown’s firing and have gone 8-2 under interim head coach Doug Christie.
So what’s changed for the Kings under Chrisite? First, Mike Brown would probably still have his job if the Kings hadn’t been so poor in close games. In 11 games decided by five or fewer points, the Kings were 2-9 under Brown, but have gone 4-0 under Christie. Christie’s ability to not have god-awful luck in close games has been a game-changer for the Kings. Remember, you can’t teach luck.
On a more serious note, the Kings' defense has remained relatively stable through the coaching change. They posted a defensive rating of 113.8 under Brown and are now sporting a defensive rating of 114.0 under Christie. Keon Ellis’ ankle injury could change that a bit, but the severity is unknown at the time of writing. However, the Kings offense has been on the upswing since Brown’s dismissal. Over the past ten games, the Kings have an offensive rating of 119.7, a +4.8 points per 100 possessions improvement.
The interesting part of the Kings’ offensive improvement is how they’ve gone about it. Per the directive of every new head coach since the Obama administration, they’ve ramped up their 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) from 39.2% to 40.6% and increased the pace. Playing faster and taking more threes is an excellent idea when you start hitting more of them (34.2% to 37%), but it has only seen their eFG% rise from 54.3% to 54.5%, and their TS% has been an identical 57.9%.
The Kings offensive explosion has had nothing to do with shot making, and everything to do with possessions. They’ve cut their TOV% from 11.9% to 10.6% and increased their offensive rebound rate from 23.4% to 27.8%. What this looks like in the box score are three more offensive rebounds and one fewer turnover per game. Four extra scoring opportunities should add up to about 4.8 extra points.
However, I don’t believe the Kings’ new system is sustainable at this level. For one, they’ve seen their 2-point efficiency decrease (56.1% to 53.8%) and their trips to the FTAr crater (.251 to .206) over the past ten games. A trip to the free throw line is still the most valuable offensive outcome, and losing a few of those per game can really add up. Right now, the Kings are relying heavily on Domantas Sabonis to kill teams on the boards, and once word gets around, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to maintain such a high offensive rebound rate.
The Kings have played better under Doug Christie, but they’ve also been luckier. As long as they remain healthy, they should continue to be a threat to make it out of the play-in. The Kings are riding high after a hit of the new manager bump, but their overall record (21-20) is a better representation of their true talent level than the past ten games.
Dallas Mavericks: +3.5 Net Rating // 22-19 Record
The Mavericks are a better team than their net rating would suggest, but until they get healthy, they’re likely to continue to slide in the standings. The whole theory of the Mavericks is built around Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving supplying elite offense, and the rest of the team defending their asses off. The strategy has largely been a success. The Mavericks made the Finals last season, and with one of Luka and Kyrie on the court, they have a positive net rating. The problem is that they won’t have Luka Doncic until February due to a calf strain, and now Irving is dealing with a bulging disk in his lower back.
For the next month or so, the Mavericks are in damage-control mode. At 22-19, they have little room for an extended slump and even treading water could see them fall into the play-in picture. However, when this team is whole, they pair an elite offense, with a top-ten defense, which makes them a real threat in any playoff series.
One area where the Mavericks could stand to improve is their defensive rebounding. Their 73.8% defensive rebound rate is 25th in the league, and rebounding is usually quite cheap on the trade market. Other than that, this is a complete team when healthy. They just need to get healthy and hope they’re close enough to the sixth seed that they don’t need to hit the gas over the final few months of the season.
The Mavericks are 2-7 since Irving was ruled out for a week with his back injury, and while he has returned for one game, they’re still listing him as Day-to-Day. The next two weeks could ultimately determine their season. Their next five games include two against the Thunder and one apiece against the Celtics and Timberwolves. If they can’t steal any of those games, they’ll be sitting at 23-23, assuming a must-win against Charlotte, and could conceivably fall all the way to 11th in the West. Injuries suck. And the Mavericks need to buckle down and continue to steal games without Luka and a less-than-optimal Kyrie. It’s doable, but it’s also a gargantuan task.
Denver Nuggets: +3.9 Net Rating // 24-16 Record
In what has been viewed as a down year for the franchise, the Denver Nuggets own the league’s seventh-best net rating at +3.9 and a 24-16 record, a 49-win pace. While that feels like a step back for a team that won a title only two seasons ago, their metrics are almost identical to where they were when they won it all. In 2022-23, the Nuggets had a +3.4 net rating (6th) and won 53 games, before dominating throughout the playoffs. That team finished fifth in offensive rating (117.6) and 15th in defensive rating (114.2), while this year’s vintage owns the fourth-best offense (117.9) and the 17th-best defense (114.0). Basically, this year’s Nuggets look identical to the team that won it all. So, why does it feel like they’re significantly worse?
First, hindsight is 20/20. The 2022-23 Nuggets were not championship favorites. Per usual, it was only after they won a title that people looked back and proclaimed how preordained their title run was. Second, 2024-25 has far more super-elite teams than there were in 2022-23. Back in 2022-23, the top-three net ratings in the league were +6.5, +5.5, and +4.4, and the Nuggets were able to win the West with 53 games. Now, the top three teams in net ratings are +13.0, +10.0, and +8.9, and we could see three teams hit 60 wins. The Nuggets, like the Rockies, stand just as high as before, but tectonic forces have sent new teams to dazzling heights.
However, the Nuggets holding serve over this stretch is a pity. Nikola Jokic remains the single most valuable player in the league, and instead of trying to build a super team around him, they’re content with him dragging a flawed team toward relevancy. The on/off splits with Jokic are legitimately comical. The Nuggets own a +12.46 net rating with Jokic on the court and a -10.4 net rating without him. Put another way, the Nuggets are damn near as good as the Thunder with Jokic and are worse than the Trail Blazers without him.
The Nuggets, due to this hyper-reliance on Jokic, are a far more dangerous playoff team than their metrics suggest. When you can afford to play Jokic 40 minutes a night, it matters less that your bench might as well be the Washington Wizards. However, it does matter enough that, barring a truly miraculous development, the Nuggets aren’t realistically in the championship conversation.
The Nuggets have a bit of upward mobility as Aaron Gordon will presumably be healthier in the second half of the season, and Jamal Murray has played better as of late. But it’s going to take an all-time god-tier run from Jokic in the postseason for this team to win a title. I would never rule that out because Jokic is already a top-ten player, but banking on it is unfair. The Nuggets are a really good team, but their flaws look too severe for even Jokic to solve.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.