The Most Valuable Players of the 2022-23 NBA Season Part III
Tier 6 (Players Ranked 36 to 64)
Welcome to Part III of the Most Valuable Players of the 2022-23 NBA season. In part I, I detail my surplus-value methodology and rank players in the first three Tiers (1-12) in surplus value. Part II ranks Tiers four and five (13-35), and now we are at Part III and Tier six. If you haven’t read parts I and II, I’d recommend giving them a whirl and at the very least reading over the methodology from part I.
Tier 6
36. Derrick White: $11,290,204.77 Surplus Value // 7.21 Wins // 1.43 StdDev
If Boston Celtics fans are still confused as to why the franchise was comfortable ripping out their heart and soul (aka Marcus Smart) and shipping it to Memphis, it’s because of the season Derrick White just had. White’s 7.21 wins were the 35th most in the league, right behind De’Aaron Fox, and were second only to Jayson Tatum on the Celtics. This wasn’t a case of a player being on a comically low salary either. White’s $16.3 million salary is the going rate for a starting-caliber player. 2022-23 was a career year for White, and it’s unlikely that he will repeat it, but that won’t suddenly tank his value. White is an excellent two-way player and has star-level on-off net rating splits. He’s the type of player who impacts winning more than his metrics suggest, which is impressive considering how good his metrics already are. The Celtics will remain incredibly deep in 2023-24, and White’s ability to outplay his contract is a big reason why.
37. Kenyon Martin Jr.: $11,252,607.12 Surplus Value // 3.40 Wins // 1.42 StdDev
The Rockets jumping the gun and sending Kenyon Martin Jr. to the Los Angeles Clippers to open up salary cap space in a failed bid to sign Brook Lopez still has to sting. Martin Jr. isn’t a star, he might not even be a solid starter on a good team, but he’s on an incredibly cheap contract and knows how to use his physical gifts to maximize his offensive efficiency. I’ve long called Martin an efficiency harvester, but that’s exactly what you want your role players to do. He catches lobs, runs in transition, cuts to the rim, and hits wide-open threes. He isn’t especially efficient on those play types, but those are the most efficient shots in basketball, which prop up his offense. Unfortunately, as long as Martin is a poor perimeter defender, he’ll only ever be a valuable bench player, but he is such an incredible vertical athlete allowing him to make highlight-reel plays at the rim. For under $2 million, the Clippers will have an exciting option off the bench to run alongside Russell Westbrook. As long as that’s all that’s needed of him, he’ll be a valuable player.
38. Josh Giddey: $11,240,086.41 Surplus Value // 4.57 Wins // 1.42 StdDev
Josh Giddey has a legion of supporters on NBA Twitter, and while I think he has a bright future, I’m dubious that he’ll ever be a star. However, that doesn’t really matter as long as he is on a rookie contract. Giddey provided 4.57 wins for only $6.2 million in 2022-23 and will earn $6.5 million next season and $8.3 million in 2024-25. For that price, Giddey is a bargain, which is incredibly impressive for a player who won’t turn 21 until October. His combination of size and passing is rare, and he showed significant improvement as a shooter in his second season. The main concern with Giddey is whether he will ever generate enough rim pressure to take his passing to the next level. That’s a concern for his second contract, and his developmental arrow is pointing straight up. The Thunder are no doubt excited about what he’ll show in year three, and if he shows a jump in his ability to create advantages off the dribble, then I’ll have to admit I was wrong about his upside.
39. Brandon Clarke: $11,033,425.69 Surplus Value // 4.01 Wins // 1.39 StdDev
Brandon Clarke was one of the NBA’s best backup power forwards/centers, but that distinction will be on hold as he recovers from an Achilles injury. Clarke is the ultimate low-hanging fruit scavenger on offense, but he’s so good finishing around the rim that he’s a valuable player. At only 6’8 and without a real 3-point shot, Clarke’s days as a super-valuable role player could be over if he doesn’t regain his bounce. He’ll earn $12.5 million each of the next four seasons, so there’s not a huge risk here, but how he looks once he’s finally back will be worth monitoring.
40. Jarrett Allen: $10,677,900.63 Surplus Value // 7.99 Wins // 1.35 StdDev
Jarrett Allen had a disastrous introduction to the playoffs, but he’s still on one of the more valuable contracts in the entire sport. His 7.99 wins were the 27th-best mark in the league, and he is one-half of the NBA’s best young defensive frontcourt. His five-year, $100 million contract, has three years left, all at $20 million, which makes him a guaranteed lock to grace these types of lists. Is Allen, as a rim runner and rim protector, the type of center you ideally want to build around? Probably not, but he is also incredibly good at two of the most important skills in the sport. There will come a time when the Cavaliers have to decide if they want to continue the double-center looks they’ve used over the past two seasons, but should they decide to move off of Allen, his contract will be viewed as a net positive around the league.
41. Isaiah Joe: $10,642,405.25 Surplus Value // 3.25 Wins // 1.35 StdDev
There’s not much to say about Isaiah Joe outside of this; he makes under $2 million and hit 40.9% of his threes in 2022-23. That level of 3-point shooting, at 5.4 attempts per game, is extremely valuable. The Thunder have him for next season at $1.997 million with a $2.1 million team option in 2024-25. If he shoots anywhere near that level, that option will be an easy exercise.
42. Drew Eubanks: $10,625,506.36 Surplus Value // 3.28 Wins // 1.34 StdDev
Eubanks is a solid NBA center who made under $2 million last season. He signed a two-year deal with the Suns that’ll see him make $5 million total. Considering how good of an environment he’ll be in, Eubanks should remain a strong value generator. He’s not a good player by any stretch of the imagination, but he is also making second-round pick money and plays center.
43. Nikola Vučević: $10,520,878.39 Surplus Value // 8.47 Wins // 1.33 StdDev
The Chicago Bulls’ ill-advised trade for Nikola Vučević has unfairly tainted his reputation. Vučević was legitimately awesome for the Magic before heading to Chicago and has been the player he always was. He can score efficiently from two levels, has a theoretical 3-point shot, can facilitate better than your average center, is a monster defensive rebounder, and is a poor rim protector. Vučević’s 8.47 wins were the 21st most in the league, and while I think advanced metrics probably overstate his impact, it’s not like this isn’t a top-50 performer. The Bulls pried Vučević, a legit first or second offensive option, from the Magic for Wendell Carter Jr. and first-round picks that would become Franz Wagner and Jett Howard, and quickly relegated him to the third option in an offense led by DeMar DeRozan who thrives in the same areas of the court as Vučević. None of that is Vučević’s fault and he still is a highly productive player. The Bulls extended him for three years and $60 million which is a reasonable deal in a vacuum, but the Bulls really should be hitting the reset button. Vučević has unfortunately come to embody the Bulls’ dysfunction. He’s a good player who never misses games and isn’t on some albatross of a contract. The moral of the story is don’t acquire offense-first centers with defensive deficiencies if you’re going to make them the third option behind two high-usage scorers.
44. Terance Mann: $10,471,023.51 Surplus Value // 3.23 Wins // 1.33 StdDev
Apparently, the Los Angeles Clippers really love Terrance Mann because reportedly he has been off-limits in trade discussions for James Harden. I’m skeptical of that, and Mann’s 3.23 wins are the main reason why. For a player making $1.9 million, three and a quarter wins is excellent value, but Mann’s compensation will hit $10.5 million next season. That’s still solid value, but we’re talking about a player where the most games they’ve started in a season is 36 games and will turn 27 in October. While Mann is nowhere near as good as James Harden, his value goes beyond the box score. He can credibly play one through three and is a very efficient scorer. Every team needs more perimeter defense, shooting, and ball-handling, and getting that out of one player makes lineup construction that much easier. If Mann is the Clippers' full-time starter, he’ll have a real shot to stay in this tier even as he makes more money. I would still move him in a deal for James Harden in a heartbeat, but I understand why the Clippers think they would need him to maximize their roster.
45. Herbert Jones: $10,424,727.66 Surplus Value // 3.18 Wins // 1.32 StdDev
Herb Jones (calling someone Herbert, even if it is their name, in 2023 just seems cruel) has been one of the best values over the past two seasons for the New Orleans Pelicans. He has made $3.4 million total, which his 3.18 wins in 2022-23 would easily cover. Equipped with go-go gadget arms, Jones is one of the better defensive power forwards in the league. He is the rare player truly capable of disrupting shots on the perimeter and was the best defensive player on the league’s sixth-ranked defense. Jone’s second season was almost a carbon copy of his rookie year, but even if this is all he is as a player, he’s still an impact defensive piece who is an outlier 3-point shooting season from being maybe the best role player in the league. The Pelicans declined a third-year team option and extended him for four years and $53.8 million this off-season. Due to his lack of offensive value, he’ll have a hard time making a killing on a list like this, but he’s still well worth the investment.
46. Donte DiVincenzo: $10,301,415.14 Surplus Value // 3.86 Wins // 1.30 StdDev
If you’re a role player looking to cash in, I suggest the Golden State Warriors one-year internship program. Donte DiVincenzo was coming off a dreadful 2021-22 campaign before he found the league’s best rehabilitation center. The Warriors Hall of Fame trio can make almost any player pop. The 3-point shooting gravity of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson leads to easy looks beyond the arc and at the rim, and Draymond Green’s genius on the defensive end can mask just about any flaw. DiVincenzo isn’t just a product of the Warriors’ core, but they allowed him to get back to where he was pre-injury on the Bucks. He shot a career-best from 3-point range and was absolutely lethal three to ten feet from the rim. He isn’t a lockdown defender, but he’s solid enough across the board that teams can’t just attack him out of a game. While his $4.5 million contract is doing some of the heavy lifting, DiVincenzo is the type of 3-and-D guard you can never have too many of. The Knicks rewarded him with a four-year, $50 million deal that should remain a positive value contract, even if he falls down the surplus value spectrum.
47. Scottie Barnes: $10,247,642.42 Surplus Value // 4.66 Wins // 1.30 StdDev
It’s fair to say that Scottie Barnes had a disappointing sophomore season. It’s also fair to say he had a really good campaign for a second-year player. In a superficial sense, Barnes’ rookie and second seasons were nearly identical.
Under the hood, Barnes struggled to score as efficiently as he had as a rookie, seeing his shooting decline in all regions of the court, and his defense suffered slightly. However, generating 4.66 wins as a 21-year-old is tough. His Rookie of the Year campaign was so excellent that anything short of an All-Star caliber season would have been a disappointment. In many respects, he set himself up to fail in the eyes of the public by being so good so fast. The good news for the Raptors is that Barnes still has two more seasons on his rookie deal at $8 million and $10.1 million. There’s no immediate pressure for him to actually become an All-Star-level player because he’s still on that sweet rookie deal. If he shows any growth, he’ll have a chance to move up these rankings, and if he really breaks out, he’ll make a charge for tiers three and two. Don’t give up on rookies after a bad season, and don’t give up on players because their rookie season was so good it made their next one feel underwhelming.
48. Cole Anthony: $10,227,850.89 Surplus Value // 3.61 Wins // 1.29 StdDev
Cole Anthony’s move from the starting lineup to the bench helped propel him to a career-best season. His efficiency as a scorer and passer improved dramatically, and it looks like he found his role for a good team as a sixth man. Unfortunately, Anthony will probably never be able to be the type of sixth man who gets a lot of run with the starters. He’s small and not a good enough shooter to be deemed a floor spacer. However, he can run the point well enough to be the leader of some really strong second units, and it’s possible he could continue to develop as a shooter that his defensive limitations are palatable. Anthony enters the final season of his rookie deal, where he’ll make $5.5 million, and it’s unlikely he will land an extension with the Magic unless he wants to take a discount. He’s a prime candidate to hit restricted free agency and play the market. If he keeps improving, then he’ll be the big winner, but if he simply stays at this level the Magic should be able to retain his services for well under $20 million a season. Anthony is super valuable when he’s making peanuts, but he’s not the type of player you overpay to keep because his utility in starting lineups is relatively limited.
49. Sam Hauser: $10,072,621.85 Surplus Value // 3.05 Wins // 1.28 StdDev
Sam Hauser is 6’8 and a career 42% 3-point shooter. His role has been limited in Boston, but those two attributes keep guys in the league for a long time. The Celtics have him locked up for $1.9 million next season and $2.09 million in 2024-25, so he’ll remain a valuable bench piece for them. If he is given a larger role and can maintain his efficiency, then he could vault up these rankings. Regardless, he should land a substantial payday when he finally hits free agency because he is 6’8 and a career 42% 3-point shooter.
50. Thomas Bryant: $9,366,135.32 Surplus Value // 3.00 Wins // 1.19 StdDev
Thomas Bryant is an offense-first center who hits a high percentage of his threes but doesn’t take enough to really be a floor spacer. He kills it in box score-based analytics, but his teams are never better with him on the court. He’s basically B-tech Christian Wood, and for under $3 million a season, that’s totally fine. His defense is pretty pitiful, so the best path for him being a real contributor, outside of BPM and win shares, is by ramping up his 3-point volume and hoping it doesn’t crater his efficiency. Bryant, as is, is a fine player, but he basically feasts on low-hanging opportunities on offense and kills you on defense. That doesn’t win games at the center position, even if he is an effective field goal percentage god.
51. Tyler Herro: $9,290,473.67 Surplus Value // 3.91 Wins // 1.18 StdDev
If you’re surprised to see Tyler Herro here, remember his extension doesn’t kick in until this upcoming season. At $5.7 million, Herro is a bargain, but at $27 to $33 million, not so much. Herro is a really good shooter and a gifted scorer, but that’s really all he does. His defense is lacking, and he’s not a good enough passer or scorer to warrant enough of the ball for that not to matter. The Heat were the benefactors of his 3.91 wins this past season, but that only adds up to around $15 million in value. For Herro to stay in this tier, he’d need to more than double his production. There’s a reason Damian Lillard isn’t a Miami Heat yet, and Herro’s looming extension is one of the biggest reasons. He’s still a good player, but he’s best as a complimentary offensive piece, which raises the defensive bar substantially.
52. Saddiq Bey: $9,193,054.61 Surplus Value // 3.17 Wins // 1.17 StdDev
Saddiq Bey, at 6’7 and a career league-average 3-point shooter, is your classic hypothetical 3-and-D wing. The reason I say hypothetical is because his defense has never graded out well. However, he has only ever played on pitiful defensive teams, so maybe he really is a true 3-and-D wing. That being said, Bey is still a highly valuable player. Getting 3.17 wins from a player with a usage of around 20% who isn’t a defensive standout is difficult. He’s entering the final season of his rookie deal, and his new team, the Atlanta Hawks, should be very interested in extending him. After two-and-half seasons in the basketballing wilderness of Detroit, he found himself on the Atlanta Hawks and was exceptional. He was lights out from 3-point range, and the Hawks posted a net rating of +8.31 with him on the court and an offensive rating of 124.85. Small sample size caveats apply, but Bey could be in line for a really strong season feasting off of Trae Young’s passing. With how desperate teams are for people who are tall and can shoot, locking Bey down as soon as possible would be a prudent decision because even hypothetical 3-and-Ds get paid.
53. Kevin Porter Jr.: $9,088,085.09 Surplus Value // 3.21 Wins // 1.15 StdDev
Kevin Porter Jr. had a solid third season in Houston as he established himself as a legit 3-point threat. The rest of his game is lacking, but players who can shoot off the dribble and off the catch are very valuable. Unfortunately, instead of being a floor spacer and secondary creator, he was the Rockets’ point guard. Porter is able to rank so highly because he only made $3.2 million last season and got a massive volume of touches, but he will see his contract quintuple to $15 million and his role decrease next season. It’s unlikely he’ll end up being worth his new deal, but a move into a more secondary role should at least see his efficiency improve. Porter is on one of the most unique NBA contracts in that very little of the deal is fully guaranteed. His contract is an asset because you’re not on the hook for much, but he’ll really need to blossom off the ball to see all of that money.
54. John Konchar: $9,084,227.21 Surplus Value // 2.97 Wins // 1.15 StdDev
The Memphis Grizzlies know how to find value, and John Konchar is now the sixth member of their team to make this list. Konchar grades as an excellent defensive player and only made $2.3 million last season. What makes his ranking all the more impressive, is he is coming off a career-worst 3-point shooting performance. As a defensive-minded shooting guard/small forward, his 3-point shooting is the bread and butter of his offensive game. If he reverts to his career line of 37.4% from beyond the arc, he should easily move up this list as he’ll make $2.3 million again next season before his three-year, $18.5 million extension kicks in. While that deal will dent his value, it’s still a great price for a player of his quality.
55. Russell Westbrook: $9,082,696.09 Surplus Value // 2.57 Wins // 1.15 StdDev
I fudged the numbers to get Russell Westbrook here, but that’s not because I’m a Westbrook fan. It’s because I want to illustrate a point. When Westbrook is making half a million, he’s on a great contract, and you love him, but when he’s making $46 million, it’s a literal death sentence for your franchise, and you hate him, but Westbrook was always the same player. It has become all too common for the transaction that landed a player (trade, draft pick, free agent, extension) to dictate how people view a player. It’s their job to play basketball, and they should get as much money as possible to perform their duties. Their job isn’t to harp over surplus value or place self-imposed restrictions to duck the luxury tax. Any ire over a bad transaction should always be directed towards the organization. And lest we forget, this isn’t your money they’re not living up to. It’s the money of people so wealthy they can own an NBA franchise.
56. Naz Reid: $9,011,999.45 Surplus Value // 2.85 Wins // 1.14 StdDev
Naz Reid is a surplus value checklist. He was undrafted. He plays center. And he scores efficiently. Simply put, he is a good player playing for next to nothing, at least he was. The Timberwolves locked him up for two more seasons at $12.9 million and $13.9 million with a third-year $15 million player option and thus destroyed all of his surplus value. In a vacuum, Reid is worth such a modest investment, but the Timberwolves already have two centers on max contracts, Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, likely preventing Reid from playing enough to live up to the deal.
57. Jaden McDaniels: $8,877,228.88 Surplus Value // 2.88 Wins // 1.13 StdDev
Extension talks between Jaden McDaniels and the Minnesota Timberwolves should already be underway. McDaniels is the rare case of a young player with serious potential that flies under the radar. He’s a 6’9 wing who plays strong defense, has a remarkably consistent corner three, and continues to improve at self-creation within the arc. There’s a real chance he becomes a legitimate star, but his floor looks like one of the best 3-and-D wings in the league. 2.88 wins as a third-year player isn’t an amazing return, but he was realistically the fourth option on offense and only made $2.1 million last season. McDaniels looks ready for a larger share of the offense, and with it, there’s every chance he has the obvious statistical breakout that leads to a Most Improved Player award. He has one more year on his rookie deal, which virtually guarantees he’ll be providing positive value next season, but the size of his extension will determine if he can stay here.
58. Kenrich Williams: $8,481,936.01 Surplus Value // 2.73 Wins // 1.08 StdDev
If you aren’t familiar with Kenrich Williams, I wouldn’t fault you. He’s basically Jaden McDaniels but old enough that he doesn’t have much upside. After two truncated seasons in New Orleans as an old young player, Williams made his way to Oklahoma City and has been an excellent role player for the past three seasons. His on-off splits are superb, he hits threes, he’s efficient on twos, and he plays strong defense on the wing. Williams made $2 million each of the past three seasons, making him a surplus-value gold mine, and the four-year, $27 million extension that kicks in this next season should still see him in the black. Even though he’ll turn 29 in December, Williams looks like a cornerstone role player for the Thunder. Not bad for a player who received zero Division I offers out of high school, had to go to junior college, missed an entire season with an injury after transferring to TCU, went undrafted, and didn’t play an NBA minute until he was 24.
59. Moritz Wagner: $8,276,855.37 Surplus Value // 2.65 Wins // 1.05 StdDev
Even though Moritz Wagner has the eternal humiliation of being an older brother who’s worse than his younger brother at something, he’s still a very solid backup center. He does all of the things centers do, but he’s a willing and capable enough 3-point shooter that you could throw stretch in there. For his efforts, he earned a two-year, $16 million deal to stay with his younger brother in Orlando, and while that will eat into his surplus value, it’s about the market rate for his production.
60. Delon Wright: $8,110,002.87 Surplus Value // 4.15 Wins // 1.03 StdDev
There’s a real argument that Delon Wright is the most underrated player in the league. He produced 4.15 wins in only 50 games, putting him on a 6.8-win pace, and for his career, he has played at a 4.9 win per 82-game pace. He’s obviously not a superstar, but that comfortably makes him a top-100 player. Wright is relatively average as a scorer, but he pairs that with a 3:1 turnover-to-assist ratio and is an exceptional defender. Defense first point guards are a dying breed, but Wright shows just how valuable those guys can be. He earned $7.8 million last season and will make $8.2 million this upcoming season before entering free agency. The Wizards poised to tank, but there’s a chance they could be frisky, and if they are, I’d bet Delon Wright is quietly having another excellent season.
61. De'Anthony Melton: $8,106,427.62 Surplus Value // 4.26 Wins // 1.03 StdDev
One of the best features of Basketball Reference (among many) is its nickname tracker, and according to their files, De’Anthony Melton’s only official nickname is “Mr. Do Something.” Before I petition The Killers to write their next hit song, I’ll spill a few words on Melton and his near-perfect nickname. The bread and butter of his game is his defensive activity. He has a career 3% steal rate, which is going to land you in the top five just about every year. There’s a reason his career on-off splits are exceptional; steals are incredibly valuable. On offense, he has become a reliable 3-point shooter, and that’s all he really needs. Melton made $8.2 million last season and will earn $8 million this season before he hits free agency. As long as Mr. Do Something is earning under $10 million, he’ll be a surplus value generator, and he’s good enough that even a $20 million contract won’t push him too far into the red.
62. Cameron Johnson: $8,088,015.68 Surplus Value // 3.64 Wins // 1.03 StdDev
It’s incredible that Cameron Johnson finished this high following a season where he only played 42 games, but the combination of elite high-volume 3-point shooting and a $5.8 million salary will make up for a lot of missed time. The Brooklyn Nets signed Johnson to a four-year, $94.5 million contract that can reach $108 million with incentives. The deal is descending in structure, which should allow it to age well because as he gets cheaper, the cost of a win will rise. Johnson shows just how valuable the 3-point shot is in the modern NBA. His one real skill is his ability to convert threes, and it has made him worth approximately seven wins per 82 games over the past two seasons, or a little more than $27 million in value per season. As long as he can maintain his production and health, he’ll be on a value-generating contracting as soon as 2024-25 when his deal drops to $23.6 million, and the cost of a win should hit $4 million dollars.
63. Mikal Bridges: $7,911,713.61 Surplus Value // 7.53 Wins // 1.01 StdDev
Mikal Bridges is on one of the best contracts in the entire sport. He earned $20 million last season and will slowly see that figure rise to $24.9 million in 2025-26 before he hits free agency. He’s one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league and thrived when thrust into a featured offensive role in Brooklyn. He produced a 3.3 BPM and 1.2 VORP (3.24 WAR) in 27 games for the Nets, a 9.84 WAR per 82 games pace, and Bridges is one of the few players you can actually bank on playing 82 games. An underrated part of his profile is his incredible availability. He has never missed a game in his career, playing 83 games last season between the Suns and Nets, and the only thing that has kept him off the court is a global pandemic. If and when there’s a zombie apocalypse, Bridges will be hooping away, earning his bottle caps. With his new role as a featured offensive option, Bridges has a real chance to shoot up this list. He’s a fantastic two-way player who never misses a game and keeps improving. Should the Nets ever decide to move him, he’ll land a king’s ransom in return.
64. Josh Hart: $7,888,685.91 Surplus Value // 5.43 Wins // 1.00 StdDev
Josh Hart is one of the most unique 3-and-D players in the league. He’s a solid defender and average 3-point shooter on a lower-than-ideal volume, but he makes up for that with incredible positional rebounding and killer efficiency within the arc. He has an uncanny ability to be a one-man fast break and plays basketball in a way that makes high school coaches across the country smile. Hart is an exceptional role player who provides support in just about every facet of the game. He opted into the final year of his deal for $12.9 million, and an extension between him and the Knicks is looming. As long as he’s healthy, he’ll provide value next season, but until he puts pen to paper we won’t know his surplus value destiny. Regardless, Hart is the type of player you’re okay overpaying because of his versatility. Every team wants a Josh Hart, but he’s a one-of-a-kind who can plug a ton of holes on the wing.