NBA New Year Check-Up Part 5: The Champions League
It’s a new year but the same season. Here’s how every NBA team is doing
The NBA season is halfway through. Just on the horizon, we have the trade deadline, and down in a gully, we’ve pushed the All-Star break in hopes of killing the ultimate stain on the competitive spirit. As the season transitions from its midpoint to the stretch run we’ve amassed enough data to reliably know just how good teams are. We haven’t hit large sample size territory just yet, but we’re not dealing with any small potatoes either.
Fortunately, it’s incredibly difficult to fake being an elite team for even 20 games. These teams are the real deal no matter how you slice it. Are some over or under-performing ever so slightly? Yes, but not to a degree that should push them out of this tier. A +6.0 net rating is awesome, but so is +5.5.
After four parts (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4) and 24 teams, we’ve finally made it to the grand finale. These are six teams who should believe the Conference Finals are their destiny and will be the betting favorites to win the title. These are the real championship contenders. This is the Champions League.
New York Knicks: +6.1 Net Rating // 27-16 Record
The New York Knicks, on the surface, don’t look like a Tom Thibodeau team. They’re second in offensive rating (120.5) but are 19th in defensive rating (114.4). For a coach known for his defensive wizardry, this pairing feels like a mismatch but that’s just a superficial reflection.
The Knicks, like most Thibodeau teams, play at a slow pace (96.6, 28th), win the possession battle, and run their best players out there for archaic minute totals. Four of the top five individual minutes totals are Knicks, and they have a stranglehold on the top three. Thus far, they’ve been exceedingly healthy, but should they fall short, without doubt, many will point to their massive regular season minutes totals and say, “That’s why they lost. They were tired. Thibosaurus ruined their chances.”
On offense, the Knicks are a thing of beauty. They’re second in eFG% (57%) and TS% (60.3%), sixth in turnover rate (12%), 11th in offensive rebound rate (25.8%), and 13th in FT/FGA ratio (.195). When you’re an elite shotmaking team, all you need to do is keep the possession battle even and you’ll bludgeon opponents, and that’s exactly what the Knicks do. Despite all that they’re doing well, the Knicks probably have a bit of upward mobility on offense. They’re 21st in 3-point attempt rate and the return of Mitchell Robinson from injury should help them tremendously on the offensive glass.
If the Knicks are going to make a run to the Conference Finals, they’ll need to have the league’s best offense because their defense is lacking. Karl-Anthony Towns supercharged this offense, but his defensive limitations have turned a solid unit into a haphazard mess. The Knicks are 20th in opponent eFG% (54.9%) and 21st in turnover rate (12.5%), but are a more solid 11th in defensive rebound rate (76%) and fifth in FT/FGA ratio (.169). As you’ve probably noticed, the Knicks are so good on offense that their offensive four factors outweigh their defensive metrics, it’s how you sport a +6.1 net rating, but their defense is preventing them from being an elite side.
An interesting tidbit is the Knicks’ starting unit of Towns, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and Josh Hart hasn’t been a world-beating unit. Those five have an on-court net rating of just +3.87. The key for the Knicks in playoffs will be fully realizing that unit’s potential. Regardless, the Knicks are an excellent team that would usually have a puncher’s chance at a title, but this season has some incredibly strong teams at the top.
Houston Rockets: +6.4 Net Rating // 28-13 Record
No team better epitomizes the mantra, “sweat, blood, and tears,” than the Houston Rockets. This team can’t even shoot the lights on, and yet, they have the fifth-best net rating in the league (+6.4) and are second in the Western Conference with a game-and-half lead on the Memphis Grizzlies with the season head-to-head tiebreaker.
The secret sauce for the Rockets is effort. They have the league’s fourth-best defense (108.3), and there is nothing fluky about it. They’re second in opponent eFG% (52.2%), seventh in opponent turnover rate (13.7%), tenth in defensive rebound rate (76.1%), and 17th in opponent FT/FGA ratio (.191). Their defense makes you work for every shot and when they ratchet up the intensity, they can force turnovers at will.
While the Rockets’ defensive foundation is unmistakably solid, their offensive success feels more fleeting. This is the 11th-ranked offense (114.7), but they’re 25th in eFG% (51.4%) and 27th in 3-point efficiency (34%). However, the Rockets overcome their lack of shot-making through sheer volume. They’re first in offensive rebound rate (31.2%) and third in turnover rate (11.6%). Like a crash course in military history, even if your opponent has superior weaponry, superior numbers usually win the day.
The Rockets’ +6.4 net rating is engineered by their ability to win the possession battle by a comical margin. Per 100 possessions, they average +6.85 more true shot attempts than their opponent. That’s 2.4 standard deviations above the mean, with the second place Orlando Magic only reaching a standard deviation of 1.9. The Rockets’ offense and defense work in perfect harmony to create a possession battle-winning monster. It isn’t pretty, but it damn sure is effective.
The only thing holding the Rockets back from being a real title threat is their lack of a true offensive engine. However, Alperen Sengun has been highly productive despite career-worst shooting efficiency, and Jalen Green has had a torrid start to the new year. While I'm more skeptical of Green continuing to play at this level (he’s had so many short bursts of excellence followed by extended runs of poor play), if Sengun can get to his previously established shooting efficiency marks, the Rockets might already have the engine they need.
Memphis Grizzlies: +7.9 Net Rating // 27-15 Record
No team in the league has underperformed their scoring margin more than the Grizzlies. Based on point differential (and thus net rating), the Grizzlies should be 31-11, but instead are 27-15 and face an uphill climb to secure the West’s two-seed. However, I’m a bit skeptical that the Grizzlies’ excellent net rating of +7.9 is a true reflection of how they’ve played.
The hallmark of great teams are blowouts, but the degree to which the Grizzlies have destroyed some opponents leaves me wondering how real their net rating is. They have two games with a net rating greater than +40, eight greater than +20, and 12 of +15. This is still an excellent team, but without those two massive blowouts, their net rating would drop to +6.03, which aligns more neatly with their record.
However, the Grizzlies remain as dangerous as any team in the league. While I believe their underlying metrics may be a little juiced, they’ve also hardly been healthy. Ja Morant has played in 24 games, Desmond Bane 33, and Marcus Smart just 18. In 260 minutes with the trio of Morant, Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. on the court, the Grizzlies have a +16.2 net rating.
The Grizzlies sport the fifth-ranked offense (117.6) and defense (109.7) and are the only team in the league in the top five in both categories, although a few teams just barely miss the cutoff. They’ve also played at by far the fastest pace in the league (104.9), which could eventually overwhelm an opposition in a playoff series.
The only weakness the Grizzlies have is they constantly turn the ball over on offense. Their turnover rate of 13.9% is 24th in the league and against teams like the Thunder and Rockets that could be their undoing. In fact, they’re 0-3 against the Rockets and lost their only contest against the Thunder. But these are some blemishes on an otherwise excellent team. They have the star power and the depth to go toe-to-toe with anyone, and so long as they’re healthy, they should be considered the biggest threat to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West.
Boston Celtics: +9.0 Net Rating // 29-13 Record
The Boston Celtics feel vulnerable for the first time in 18-months, but that has less to do with them, and everything to do with the two teams ahead of them. Let’s be real, the Celtics are sporting a +9.0 net rating. That alone makes you a championship contender. Their offense is third in the league (119.7) and their defense is sixth (110.7), and they’ve been bitten by poor shooting luck (30.6% 3PT%) when they have their Death Star lineup of Kristaps Porzingis, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White on the court.
To show how insanely good the Celtics are, let’s discuss the mini-crisis they find themselves in. On December 15th, the Celtics beat the Washington Wizards to push their record to 21-5, a 66-win pace. Since then, they’ve gone a pedestrian 8-8, but here’s the catch. Over their past 16 games, they’ve also run a net rating of +7.1. So yeah, the Celtics, even when everything is going wrong, are still an out-of-this-world elite team.
Honestly, there’s nothing wrong with this team in the slightest. Would I like it if they generated more free throws on offense and forced a few more turnovers on defense? Yes, but I also think they can do those things when needed. You can moan about all the threes they take, but it’s the right strategy, and outside of Payton Pritchard, no one on this team is shooting at an unsustainable clip.
The Celtics are the defending champions, playing at a leisurely elite level, and in 90% of seasons would be the clear title favorites. They’re not grinding through the regular season, they have nothing to prove, and they’re playing like that. Mark my words, there’s going to be a stretch when they get incandescent from three and push Cleveland for one seed. It might not be enough, but it’ll be enough to remind everyone who the champs are.
Cleveland Cavaliers: +10.0 Net Rating // 35-6 Record
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the surprise of the first half. Entering the season, there were serious questions about their ability to build a competent offense with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley entrenched in the starting lineup, but they’ve obliterated those concerns with the league’s best offense (121.8) and second-best net rating (+10.0). The job Kenny Atkinson has done in his first year should make him the front-runner for Coach of the Year, but the second half of the season probably won’t be as charmed as the first.
The Cavaliers, without a doubt, are an elite team, but they’ve benefitted from their share of good fortune. Based on point differential, the Cavaliers would be expected to be 31-10, and they’re leading the league in 3-point efficiency at 39.6%. A slight regression from 3-point range won’t turn them into a meek offense, they lead the league in 2-point efficiency as well, but it’s never wise to bet on a team to shoot nearly 40% from three.
However, while there are some warning signs on offense, the biggest concern for the Cavaliers has been the play of Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell has been excellent since coming to Cleveland, but he is in the midst of his worst season in years. His 3.2 offensive BPM is his lowest since 2019-20, and he’s seen a sizable dropoff in efficiency around the basket, posting a career-worst 56.7% shooting on shots 0-3 from the rim. The Cavaliers' elite offense and Mitchell’s excellent 3-point shooting have obscured his struggles, but they’ll need him to get back to an All-NBA level to make a title run.
While the Cavaliers’ offense has some negative regression indicators, their defense has actually come in a tad below expectations. Combining the best offense with the tenth-ranked defense (111.8) is a great way to be an elite team, but it would be the Cavaliers’ worst showing since 2019-20 on the defensive end. A big factor has been opponents shooting 36.5% from three (22nd) and a decline in their defensive rebounding from seventh in 2023-24 to 12th this season.
The decline in 3-point defense and rebounding could be a product of lineup choices. Isaac Okoro, the Cavaliers’ best perimeter defender, has seen his minutes decline from 27.3 minutes a night to 19.7, and Atkinson has generally favored shooting over size when constructing lineups. The Cavaliers could probably use one more versatile defender to round out their rotation, hopefully taking minutes away from Georges Niang, but this is still one of the deepest rosters in the league.
The Cavaliers are true championship contenders and should sport a top-ten defense and offense by the season’s end. Normally, a team this good wouldn’t need to add anything, but both the Celtics and Thunder loom as equally elite sides. I doubt they’ll maintain their 70-win pace, but this should still easily be a 60-win team and they’re well on their way to claiming the one seed in the East.
Oklahoma City Thunder: +12.9 Net Rating // 35-7 Record
The Oklahoma City Thunder are on pace for a historic season. Their 12.97 SRS is the best ever, a full point better than the second-best mark of 11.92, their +12.9 net rating is second only to the 1995-96 Bulls, and their league-leading defensive rating of 103.9 is the best defensive rating relative to the league average of the 21st century. They’ve done all of this despite only getting ten games from Chet Holmgren, one of the best defenders in the world, and without a true center in nine games.
The Thunder’s elite defense is a tale of extremes. They lead the league in defensive eFG% (50%) and turnover rate (16.2%) by silly margins but are vulnerable on the boards (73.6% defensive rebound rate, 26th) and at the foul line (.213 FT/FGA, 27th). Obviously, the math works out in the end, and it makes the prospects of finally having Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein healthy (they’ve yet to feature in a game together) terrifying. This is the best defense in the league by a mile and we haven’t even seen it whole.
On offense, the Thunder are far less dangerous comparably. Yes, their offensive rating of 116.8 is sixth in the league, but they’re basically a one-man show. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP front runner and for good reason. He’s averaging 31.5 points per game on 64.4% true shooting and with him on the court the Thunder blitz opponents for 121.67 points per 100 possessions. However, without Gilgeous-Alexander the Thunder’s offense crumbles to 106.79.
It’s not uncommon for teams to be hyper-reliant on their best player, especially on offense, but it does suggest one vulnerability in their death machine. The Thunder have the assets to add another offensive playmaker and are still holding out hope that Jalen Williams will develop into a true high-level secondary option. However, the Thunder are title contenders right now and have one identifiable weakness. They don’t need another star, but adding one more creator could be the move that makes them a legendary team.
No one has been anywhere close to the Thunder. Their defense might be the greatest in history and their offense is powered by the closest thing we’ve seen to Michael Jordan. With an average age of 24.6, we might be witnessing the rise of the next great dynasty. They’re the odds-on favorites to win the title and despite small vulnerabilities, this is the closest we have to a perfect team.
For any inquiries about work, discussion, and the like you can email me at nevin.l.brown@gmail.com.