The Most Valuable Players of the 2022-23 NBA Season Part IV
Where the Best Players in the League Rank in Surplus Value
If you caught parts I, II, and III, you’d have noticed that tiers one through six were missing many of the NBA’s best players. Surplus value is about your production relative to your contract, and it doesn’t take much for the best players in the league, who usually happen to be compensated handsomely, to quickly tumble down a list like this. When a win costs $3.8 million, any player making in excess of $40 million has to have an incredibly productive and healthy season just to break even. In part IV, we’ll go through the top 30 players in the league based on wins and see where they rank in surplus value. 16 of the top 30 players in wins were also in the top 64 of surplus value, so we’ll focus our attention on the 14 who failed to produce at least one standard deviation of surplus value.
*Bold indicates they were not in parts I, II, or III and will be featured
The top seven players in wins were all top 20 in surplus value. Getting to 12+ wins makes it increasingly difficult to be on a negative-value contract. Once you reach 12 wins, you’re generating $45.6 in value, a salary figure only ten players will top next season. However, the eighth player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, produced 11.59 wins but was only 155th in surplus value.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: $2,007,741.83 Surplus Value // 11.59 Wins // 0.28 StdDev
Giannis ranking this low shouldn’t be too surprising, and I’d argue his ranking so highly is still a testament to his basketball greatness. The significant number is Gianni’s $42.5 million salary in 2022-23. That alone means he has to produce 11.07 wins to break even, and he surpassed that figure in only 63 games played. To reach one standard deviation from the mean in surplus value, he would have needed to add 1.53 more wins to his ledger. If he had played ten more games, he would have hit that mark, but it still wouldn’t have vaulted him over Shai Geilgeous-Alexander, a potential canary in the coal mine for an all-time great.
On the surface, Giannis had another MVP-level season. He averaged 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game as the Milwaukee Bucks won the most games in the league. However, under the hood, Giannis took a significant step back in both win shares per 48 and BPM from where he had been before. Over the previous four seasons, Giannis produced a BPM of 10.5 and a win shares per 48 of .275, but those figures fell to 8.5 and .204 in 2022-23.
The primary driver of his decline was the degradation in his scoring efficiency. Compared to the league average, his true shooting percentage of 60.5% was only 4% better than the league average, the lowest since his second season in the NBA. There are a few factors contributing to his efficiency decline. The first is volume. Giannis’ 38.8% usage both led the league and was a career-high. It’s very difficult to remain efficient at such an extreme usage, and there’s a point of diminishing returns that Giannis looks like he reached. Along with the extreme usage, he saw his assisted 2-point field goal percentage hit an all-time low. Taking more shots and more difficult shots is a recipe for efficiency-based disaster.
Giannis also experienced significant drops in his efficiency three to ten feet away from the basket and at the free throw line. The Bucks pushing Giannis to the offensive brink was compounded by another factor outside his control. As his efficiency declined, the league’s hit an all-time high, reaching 54.8% on 2-point efficiency. While I wouldn’t rule out a return to his prior level with a less ludicrous offensive workload, there are a few warning signs that his superhuman athleticism may be declining. Giannis was blocked 82 times, the most in a season since 2018-19, right before he morphed into an MVP, and he posted the lowest steal and block percentages of his career.
Giannis had offseason knee surgery, and it’s very possible that whatever ailed his knee caused the slight decline, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we’ve already seen Giannis’ peak. He’s still an absurdly good player and worth every penny, but his next extension might be painful towards the backend. I’d still do whatever it took to keep him around, but if he doesn’t bounce back in a big way this upcoming season, it becomes more likely that he will age like Shaquille O’Neal and not LeBron James.
Damian Lillard: $183,961.76 Surplus Value // 11.12 Wins // 0.05 StdDev
Stephen Curry: -$8,733,957.44 Surplus Value // 10.25 Wins // -1.06 StdDev
Anthony Davis: $30,696.30 Surplus Value // 9.90 Wins // 0.03 StdDev
I’ve grouped Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, and Anthony Davis because they failed to rank in tiers one through six for the same reason. They played between 56 and 58 games. On a rate basis, the trio are surefire top 15 players, and there’s a very compelling case that they all should be in the top ten. Curry finished sixth in BPM and 19th in WS/48, Lillard came in ninth in BPM and eighth in WS/48, and Davis ended the season 11th in BPM and fifth in WS/48. You can argue where you think they exactly fit in the NBA hierarchy, but you can’t argue that these are three of the absolute best players in the world.
Unfortunately, wins are a counting stat, and once you start missing over 20 games, it’s nearly impossible to generate a ton of surplus value. However, Lillard and Davis still managed to squeak across the finish line. Curry’s -$8,733,957.44 of surplus value is one of the downsides of being the highest-paid player in the league. His $48 million salary requires 12.52 wins to break even, but considering how good he is when he plays, you’ll sign up for that in a heartbeat.
Even as Curry, Lillard, and Davis tread deeper into their 30s, as long as they are healthy, an increasingly big if for each, they’ll be worth top dollar. Curry and Lillard are still two of the best offensive engines in the world, and Davis is one of the best defensive players in the sport and pairs that with real offensive value. While the end of their respective deals will probably hurt, you’ll live with that potential pain to chase championships.
James Harden: $3,859,555.20 Surplus Value // 9.6 Wins // 0.51 StdDev
Part of me feels bad for James Harden’s current situation. He took a pay cut (he declined $47.4 million and signed for $33 million with a $35 million player option) so the Philadelphia 76ers could surround him and Joel Embiid with a strong supporting cast and then produced a top-15 campaign in only 58 games. He should have been an All-Star and had a claim to make an All-NBA team as well. While the days of Harden leading the league in scoring are gone, that’s perfectly fine for one of the league’s best passers. He led the NBA in points generated from assists per game at 24.6, and his combined points generated from assists and points scored per game was higher than his MVP teammate Joel Embiid (45.6 to 43.7).
Harden is no longer an MVP candidate, but he’s still a damn good player. If he opted out of his deal with the expectation of landing a long-term max extension with the Sixers, then a part of me understands why he has been apoplectic all summer. However, Harden’s arrow has been pointing down for some time now, and expecting a team to pay for past performances, not all of which were with them, is naive.
If Harden hits 70 games played, he’ll likely be worth at least $36 million in value, but his days of commanding $40 million per season are behind him. Regardless of how it ends, his saga with the Sixers is a cautionary tale. Don’t ever give up money today expecting it to be paid back down the line. I hope his situation gets resolved, but I’m not optimistic.
Jalen Brunson: $7,110,466.28 Surplus Value // 9.08 Wins // 0.91 StdDev
Jalen Brunson narrowly missed the cut in his maiden season with the New York Knicks, but no one is complaining. He finished 71st in surplus value and was a top-20 performer for the low-low price of $27.7 million. When the Knicks signed Brunson, I was down on the deal. I’ll have to take the L on that one. He had a career-best season, and his contract is descending, making his deal one of the absolute best in the sport. If 2022-23 was a career year, it won’t matter. If 2022-23 is his new level, he’ll easily move into the top six tiers. And if 2022-23 is the start of an ascent, then this is one of the best free-agent contracts in NBA history.
Brunson is a tier below All-NBA but solidly an All-Star caliber player. The only concern is his iso-heavy style of play is unlikely to scale well next to a true star. However, those are luxury problems. He’s excellent and on an even better contract. The Knicks are building towards their best team in a decade, and he’s a massive reason why.
Kevin Durant: -$9,700,256.90 Surplus Value // 8.67 Wins // -1.18 StdDev
On a per-minute basis, Kevin Durant remains one of the best players in the world. Unfortunately, his durability, once a hallmark, is now a significant concern. Since 2018-19, he has failed to hit 60 games played in a single season, maxing out at 55 and missing an entire season. All told, he has featured in only 137 of his team’s 308 games. Even if we remove the 2019-20 season, he has still missed 99 games over the past three seasons. You can’t rack up wins unless you’re on the court, and Durant just doesn’t play enough to live up to his contract in some respects. However, it is insanely impressive that he racked up 8.67 wins in only 47 games between the Nets and Suns.
Durant’s regular-season availability is legitimately his only knock. He’s the best mid-range jump shooter in the world, an exceptional versatile defender, and his passing is efficient if unspectacular. On a per-game basis, he’s a top-ten regular-season performer, and his skill set is even better suited to the playoffs when tough shot-making becomes more crucial. Durant is going to have a difficult time generating surplus value because of his salaries, $47.6 million next season, $51.1 million in 2024-25, and $54.7 million in 2025-26, but his ability to raise your championship odds is well worth it.
The Suns gutting their roster to land Bradley Beal, who was third to bottom in surplus value, puts tremendous pressure on Devin Booker and their army of minimum signings to make up the difference. Durant is an inner-circle Hall of Famer, but he’s at the stage of his career where team depth is paramount. If he can hit 65 games, the Suns should be a regular season wins machine, but if his annual injury sabbatical hits again, the Suns will be in a dogfight for playoff seeding.
Pascal Siakam: -$2,851,002.87 Surplus Value // 8.49 Wins // -0.33 StdDev
Pascal Siakam is one of the league’s more underrated stars. He’s like Jimmy Butler, but with the sliders turned down 20%. An all-around player, Siakam gets lost in the shuffle by never being around the league lead in any category, but the totality of his production is singular. He was the only player in the league to average more than 20 points (24.2 ppg), seven rebounds (7.8 rpg), five assists (5.8 apg), and fewer than three turnovers (2.4) per game last season. When you factor in how dreadful the Toronto Raptors’ spacing was at times, his below-average shooting efficiency is less of a concern.
As great as Siakam is, he’s more borderline All-NBA than a surefire top-15 player. If he’s your best guy, you’ll be competent, but if he’s your second-best player, you’re cooking with gas. Siakam enters the final year of his deal ($37.8 million) and is extension-eligible. In a raw surplus value sense, he’s probably not worth that much, but he’ll be close enough to that mark that it’s 100% worth it to concentrate that many wins in a single player. As for his extension, Siakam has a lot riding on this season. If he makes All-NBA, he’ll be eligible for a supermax five-year, $290.3 million (estimated) contract. At that price, Siakam becomes one of the worst contracts in the league, but so would just about every player.
Siakam is an excellent player who deserves a massive bag (as the kids would say), but he’s in the Bradley Beal category of player, where a supermax is simply far too large an investment for his talents. The Raptors should look to trade him because there’s no world where they extend him to a reasonable deal. The rules owners fought for designed to help less glamorous markets retain stars have unfortunately burned those franchises more than they’ve helped. The tier-one stars get to where they want, and the tier-two stars take the money and sink the franchise. Don’t blame the players. Blame the supposed business geniuses who fought for those provisions.
Kristaps Porzingis: -$1,427,707.72 Surplus Value // 8.44 Wins // -0.15 StdDev
Washington, D.C. isn’t the basketball wilderness. It’s more like the basketball Iowa. There’s stuff going on, but not much, and no one cares. If it wasn’t for the Wizards’ malignant mundanity, Kristaps Porzingis’ season would have been hailed as the long-prophesized breakthrough for ‘the Unicorn.’ Since arriving in Washington, Porzingis has played 82 games and leveled up to a legitimate All-Star caliber player. His efficiency on twos and threes had never been better, his free throw generation exploded, and he combined efficient high-volume scoring with excellent rim protection. Throw in the best health since his first two seasons, and the player we were promised in New York finally arrived.
While Porzingis’ time in Washington was excellent, it still wasn’t enough to get him into the black, as far as surplus value is concerned. $33.8 million in salary is a lot, but he came ever so close to reaching the 8.81 wins that price tag expects. Following a trade to the Boston Celtics, he opted into the final year of his deal at $36 million and then signed an extension for two years, $60 million. Next season, with a reduced offensive role, he’ll have a hard time getting to the surplus station, but over the next two seasons, he’ll have a real chance to be a positive value contract.
The most significant question mark with Porzingis will always be his health. Even when he was underperforming in Dallas, a laundry list of injuries obscured solid production. It’s difficult to find true floor spacers at the center position, and it’s incredibly rare to pair that with elite rim protection. Last season, he and Brook Lopez were the only qualified players to post a block percentage of 4% or greater, to take seven or more threes per 100 possessions, and to convert 36% or more of their threes. Porzingis offers a valuable skillset when healthy, and if he can ever improve as a passer and/or rebounder, he could make a run at an All-NBA team.
Kyrie Irving: -$4,155,200.78 Surplus Value // 8.43 Wins // -0.49 StdDev
Kyrie Irving is the NBA equivalent of a luxury sports car. Everyone wants one, they’re a ton of fun, but the money-to-hassle ratio never seems to add up. Irving is one of the best three-level scorers in the sport and offers solid secondary playmaking. An under-appreciated skill of his is his ability to hold onto the ball. Since the 2019-20 season, he is one of four players (minimum 100 games played) to have a turnover percentage under 10% and a usage greater than 28%, and of that group, his 28.6% assist percentage is the highest.
As great as Irving’s offensive contributions are, his defense is poor, and his availability is a massive concern. He hasn’t eclipsed 70 games since 2016-17 and has played only 163 games over the past four seasons. Surplus value is a counting stat, and Irving hasn’t played enough to live up to his salary in recent years. If he’s healthy and/or figures out how to not publically be a brain-dead bigot, then there is a good chance he can get into the black over the next three seasons. However, with Kyrie Irving, those are massive ifs. The Mavericks have a surplus value advantage with Luka Doncic, but their ceiling will be determined by whether Irving squanders or amplifies it.
Kawhi Leonard: -$10,720,323.33 Surplus Value // 8.28 Wins // -1.30 StdDev
LeBron James: -$12,990,784.60 Surplus Value // 8.20 Wins // -1.58 StdDev
It only took 20 years, but LeBron James is officially slowing down. 2022-23 was the first season since his rookie year where he failed to eclipse a BPM of 7.0. While a BPM of 6.1 is still All-NBA quality, it’s a far cry from the 9.3 (MVP-level) he averaged between 2004-05 and 2021-22.
There are moments when Kawhi Leonard looks like the best player in the world. He can score from anywhere on the court and lock down just about anyone on the perimeter. There are few players capable of impacting the game from anywhere on the court, but Leonard is one of them.
At this stage in their careers, James and Leonard have a tremendous amount in common. LeBron played 55 games, and Leonard played 52. Kawhi produced 8.28 wins, and LeBron produced 8.2. Lebron made $44.4 million, and Leonard made $42.4 million. When they’re on their game, they can singlehandedly beat anyone, but they’ve both lost the ability to bring it every night and are among the highest-paid athletes in the world.
Superstar players with injury concerns on massive deals are where surplus value goes to die, but that doesn’t stop teams from targeting them. With the premium teams place on the playoffs, they’re more than willing to sign up for $40+ million in salary to get the best players in the world, even if it means they play sparingly in the regular season.
In a Catch-22, LeBron and Kawhi raise their respective organizations’ championship odds through their one-of-a-kind ability in the playoffs, but they simultaneously lower their chances of securing a top seed, hurting their championship odds, by being absent so frequently during the regular season. There is a balancing act when managing geriatric/injury-prone stars. How much do we concede regular season wins, a critical variable in postseason success, to have the best team once the playoffs roll around?
The two L.A. teams have effectively gone all in on Leonard and James delivering negative value in the regular season with the hope that they will be healthy enough to lead a deep playoff run. That won’t change this season, and it probably won’t change ever. LeBron turns 39 at the end of December and should overtake Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for career minutes played sometime this season. He can still be a game-changing player, but his minutes need to be managed. Leonard, while significantly younger, has had so many lower-body injuries over the past six seasons that expecting him to hold up over an 82-game schedule borders on cruel. These are two inner-circle Hall of Famers in the twilight of their championship-altering years. They’re not monetarily efficient in the regular season, but teams will roll the dice on their playoff health to chase a banner. It’s not the basket I’d want my eggs in, but it’s better than not having a basket.
Trae Young: -$6,610,576.22 Surplus Value // 7.94 Wins // -0.79 StdDev
Trae Young is one of the more divisive superstars in the NBA, and it’s not hard to understand why. He’s one of the most talented offensive players in the world. Even in a down year, he produced the 13th-best offensive BPM. However, he is literally one of the worst defenders in the sport, as his defensive BPM was 183rd out of 190 qualified players. Trae Young giveth points and Trae Young giveth points to the other team. He is the walking embodiment of the NBA All-Star game, and as such, people’s view of him varies dramatically from savant to overrated ball hog. (both are probably true, for that matter)
What cannot be denied is Young’s singular ability to generate points. Since his second season in the league (2019-20), the Atlanta Hawks have produced an offensive rating of 117.59 with him on the court and seen it drop to 108.35 when he sits. He functionally guarantees an elite offense, but how he gets there is a little different than the public perception of a long-range gunner.
Young’s superpower is his passing, while his scoring is closer to neutral. He led the league in points generated from assists and was fourth in assist percentage at 42.5%. His shooting splits from the field are all below average, and he functionally props up his scoring through elite free throw generation and conversion. He also isn’t the high-volume 3-point shooter people make him out to be. While his 6.3 3-point attempts per game were the 36th most last season, his 3-point attempt rate of .331 was well below the league average of .387. In the aggregate, his offensive is fantastic, but his playmaking and free throw grifting drive a large portion of his offense, not his 3-point shooting. He’s more James Harden than Steph Curry.
To highlight just how absurd Young’s offensive impact is, he generated 7.94 total wins with negative defensive impact, meaning his offense alone is worth far more than eight wins. Unfortunately, the extremes that Young occupies have derailed the Hawks’ quest to move into contender status. Since 2019-20, the Hawks’ defensive rating has been 116.76 with Young on the court and 112.02 when he sits. That works out to a +0.83 net rating with him on the court and a -3.66 with him on the bench. While the Hawks are better with him on the court, the degree to which they are pales in comparison to many of the game’s elite offensive creators.
Is Trae Young a winning player? In the right situation, almost certainly, but building the right situation is far harder than people give it credit, and makes his inability to generate surplus value so damaging to the Hawks. He simply needs more around him than your run-of-the-mill star, and he also needs to be the primary offensive initiator to be worth building around, which in turn, limits the value of other players. With his contract set to grow from $40 next season to $48.9 million through 2026-27, the Hawks desperately need Young to improve (a tall order for a player already so good) or for someone else to take a step forward. When your star doesn’t generate surplus value and isn’t one of the ten best players in the world, you’re usually stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity.
DeMar DeRozan: $2,494,807.12 Surplus Value // 7.76 Wins // 0.34 StdDev
DeMar DeRozan is a player I find fascinating. He’s undoubtedly a good player, as his 7.76 wins would indicate, but he has only managed a positive on-off net rating twice in his 14-year career. He has largely dodged the empty stats/losing player allegations, but he could easily be its poster child. Even if DeRozan’s on-court impact is limited, his individual statistical production remains excellent. He’s an effective two-level scorer, elite free throw grifter, as durable as four layers of duct tape, and pairs solid playmaking with minuscule turnover rates.
The primary knocks against DeRozan are his lack of defensive impact and inability to be a floor spacer. The margins get incredibly thin when your game is predicated on mid-range jumpers, and he simply isn’t elite enough in that region to make up for his deficiencies elsewhere. This doesn’t make him a bad player, but of the 24 players to average over 24 points per game on a greater than 52% effective field goal percentage, he was 22nd in offensive BPM.
DeRozan still provided positive value for the Chicago Bulls last season, but his $27.3 million salary was just about market value for his services. He’ll make $28.6 million next season before reaching free agency, and any extension talks could get contentious. His traditional statistics are excellent, his advanced metrics are solid, but he’ll be 35 by the time an extension kicks in, and he has a troubling history of not improving his teams’ on-court product. The NBA has gravitated away from players like DeRozan for a simple reason– it’s not effective basketball. I wish there were more varied avenues to contention, but as of right now, there aren’t, and it makes DeRozan a lesser player than his talents suggest.